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The Research Of Forecast Method And Application Of Logistics Park

Posted on:2004-09-24Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:J YunFull Text:PDF
GTID:1116360092997583Subject:Mechanical design and theory
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
With the development and change of economic structure and economic situation, accompanied by the transition from planned economy to market economy, modern logistics businesses have only just taken off, particularly in the special phase of China reform. Holding the inadequate and imperfect history data, as anybody can see, the forecasting of logistics system will be confronted with many difficulties, because the forecast models are in want of a great number of history data. On the practical conditions of logistics system in China, how to find out a predicting approach of high accuracy has the vital part in the forecast research of logistics system.Guided by systemic thought, this paper researches seriously the forecasting methods and application of the programming of Air Logistics Park on the basis of the forecast theory and modern logistics theory, and solves the problems of systemic research on forecasting thread and means in the programming of ShengZhen Air Logistics Park. Also this paper applies it to the programming of Air Logistics Park, and gets a good effect. That is, this paper provides a new method and a new technology for the theoretical study of logistics system forecast, and the same to the theoretical study of Air Logistics Park programming. Other logistics park or logistics system also can use this thread for reference. The main studying contents and results of this paper arc as follows:(1) It studies thoroughly the character of Logistics Park and Air Logistics Park. From the point of systemic view, this paper analyzes the Air Logistics Park systemically and provides the forecasting method of Air Logistics Park and logistics system.(2) It analyzes roundly the methods and characters of forecast, and analyzes how to select the approach of prediction for logistics system and then conducts application.(3) It studies the method of market survey of Air Logistics Park, designs survey thread and methods which fully reflects the information needed by Air Logistics Park programming, and gets a good survey effect.(4) It provides a multi-target forecasting methods and multi-target forecasting models for Logistics Parke and studies Econometrics forecasting model and other models. This paper studies the multi-target neural network model and its two kinds of structure. It advances the different deciding method of input cells between the single-direction and the multi-direction relation neural network models and provides a new way to study multi-target forecast.(5) It studies the neural network forecasting model and its improved methods, which is based on the regression analysis, and also applies it for logistics system forecast. This paper provides the thinking and the forecast method of regression neural network of logistics system, and researches methods of arranging input and output data in model structure.(6) It studies the time serial neural network forecast model and discusses how to determine the dimension of input data and how to smooth the unsteady time serial data. Also this paper uses the time serial neural network model to forecast the volume of freight of Shenzhen Airport Air Logistics Park. Finally, this paper attains higher accuracy in using the forecasting model and gets a good forecast effect.(7) On the basis of theoretical study, this paper forecasts the targets of Air Logistics Park, and analyzes synthetically all the forecasting results of every forecast methods provided in this paper. At the same time this paper adjusts the forecasting results on the basis of the analysis, and gets rather a perfect effect.(8) Also this paper researches the programming and layout of Air Logistics Park, and gives the principles and methods on how to divide the function sectors of Air Logistics Park. What's more, it accomplishes a three-dimension cartoon simulation of ShenZhen Airport Air Logistics Park. This simulation estimates and verifies the rationality of the programming and layout of Logistics Park. At the same time it will be useful to the project financing of...
Keywords/Search Tags:Logistics system, Forecast, Neural network, Air Logistics Park
PDF Full Text Request
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