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Research CHP Project Risk Management Based On Full Life-cycle

Posted on:2011-11-05Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:J WuFull Text:PDF
GTID:1119330332960619Subject:Management Science and Engineering
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Risk management is the process which intends to minimize the negative effects of any least desired incidents. This is a newly established, multi-area management science. In China, intensive researches have already been conducted in different areas of the whole life cycle of risk management, including the recognition, assessment and evaluation of risk factors, making plans for risk management, as well as dealing with and supervising risk factors. A rather comprehensive theory of risk management system has been formed. However, there exists a fairly weak link in the application of this theory, especially in the management of CHP project.In his book Project Management for Business and Technology:Principles and Practice, American management expert John M. Niklas says, "Project management is itself risk management." This shows the significance of risk management in CHP project. The risks in the project will not only lead to the economic losses to the investors, but also threat people's living and social stability. As far as the developers involving in CHP are concerned, they are in great need for effective and comprehensive risk management guidance.Based on the systematic analysis of the risk management theories home and abroad, by means of applying theory into practice, this paper attempts to construct a whole-life-cycle risk management framework in CHP, which fits the Chinese situation and agrees with the international conventions as well. It is hoped that this framework will both improve the management level of CHP projects and maximize the profits of the investors.To be in details, the paper is concerned with the following aspects:First of all, a survey concerning the international and domestic researches is done, from the respects of risk management, project risk management and CHP risk management, followed by the paper's research goals, structure, research methodology and the originality in this study.Secondly, with the risk management and whole life cycle theories, on the basis of thorough investigation of international and domestic project stage division and standards, the paper divides the whole life cycle in CHP into four stages:conception, designing, implementation, and operation. By discussing the detailed contents in the four stages, the whole-life-cycle risk management system in CHP is set up.Thirdly, with the methodologies of WBS, situation analysis and questionnaires, and reliability and validity tests,24 risk factors in the whole-life-cycle risk management system in CHP are identified, including 5 factors in conception,6 factors in designing,6 factors in implementation and 7 factors in operation.Fourthly, the 4 implicit variables and 24 explicit ones are studied and they form the assessment framework in the whole-life-cycle risk management system in CHP. A risk assessment model is put up via fuzzy mathematics method. The weights of these risk factors are calculated through rough theory. The above analysis shows that CHP is a high risk project, with 10 major potential risks.Fifthly, by way of Net Present Value, Game Theory and The analytic hierarchy process, the 10 major potential factors are analyzed quantitatively and qualitatively, and the remedy measures are put forward, with the purpose of achieving the goals and reducing the losses from the risks.Project risk management is a dynamic, cyclic system. In this process, instance supervision should be given to the changes in risks. By virtue of two methods:the Earned Value Analysis and risk forewarn, the four stages in whole-life-cycle of CHP is under supervision and control, with the.major attention on the remaining risks. Thus, an effective, dynamic and cyclic management chain is formed, with the intention of achieving the project goal efficiently.Finally, in the conclusion part, the paper makes a summary of the major discussions and points out the limitations in this study. Meanwhile, the paper offers suggestions for future researches in the risk management in CHP.
Keywords/Search Tags:CHP projects, Full life cycle, Risk Management, Innovation
PDF Full Text Request
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