The Analyse And Countermeasures Study On The Balance Of Energy Supply And Demand In The Period Of "12th Five-Year Plan"

Energy is a indispensable basic resource for the survival of mankind, economic development, social progress and the advancement of modern civilization, an important strategic material in relation with the country's economy and national defense and security, also the basis for the sustainable economic and social development. Therefore, energy plays a vital role in the modernization construction. In "12th five-year plan" China has entered the stage of industrialization development along with many fundamental changes in such fields as economy and society, the sector of energy is also facing a variety of challenges, which will consequently lead to changes in the consumption, efficiency and production structure of energy. To make scientific analysis and forecast on the changes in the demand and supply of energy is important significance for the formulation of proper energy development planning, securing the realization of the nation's strategic goal and the construction of a harmonious energy-saving society.In this paper, the development of world energy situation and the status quo of China's energy development, based on the application of system dynamics theory and methods, combined with relevant principles of economics, on issues related to China's energy supply and demand and policy analysis of the simulation, as follows:Then, the establishment of dynamic model of energy supply and demand balance, including coal, oil and other traditional energy sources. First introduced the system dynamics of the related content, including the operation of the system dynamics and processes, then the energy balance of the system dynamics analysis to understand the four major subsystems, and the model assumptions made related to And eventually established a system dynamics model of energy supply systems, for the following five-second period provides the basis for energy balance.Then second five-energy dynamics of supply and demand balance of Empirical Research. According to various types of energy supply and demand system model for system simulation, are "second Five-Year " period of energy supply and demand, and the model testing and simulation, based on the results of energy supply and demand gap analysis for the development of "second During "energy development planning and policies to enrich the basis.Finally, the "second Five-Year " period of China's energy development measures:energy conservation priority, improve energy efficiency, adjusting energy structure, ensure the supply; increase investment in energy industries, technological innovation, increase energy production, reduce energy consumption, reduce external Dependence; accelerate the pace of reform of energy sectors; create oil reserve system to ensure energy security; strengthen macro-control, to develop appropriate energy policies and regulations for the sustainable development of energy security.