| Since the recovery of domestic business, the insurance industry has experienced 30 years of rapid development, the number of insurance companises grew from one in 1979 to 121 in 2009, the averaged growth rate of annual premium income reaches more than 20% during the period. In 2009, for the first time premium income exceeded one trillion yuan, became the world's 7th largest insurance market, and in 2010 premium income reached 1.45 trillion yuan, employing more than 3 million people.2000-2009, China's insurance density increased from 15.2 U.S. dollars per capita rose to $121.2 per capita, insurance penetration increased from 1.79% to 3.4%, insurance and people are getting closer, in the national economy is becoming increasingly important. However, compared with the world level, China's insurance industry is still in relatively low level, in 2009, world insurance density is 595.1 U.S. dollars, China is only 20% of it, ranked 64th in the world, and the world's insurance penetration is 7%, and China is only about 50% of it. On the other hand, it also means that China's insurance market is huge potential for development. However, the rapid development of the insurance industry for 30 years, inevitably have some deep-seated contradictions and problems, all of which highlight in the financial crisis.In order to protect China's insurance industry to develop continuously, early-warning of insurance companies'risks has become more urgent. Limited time and capacity, this thesis only study on property insurance companies.Based on framework of the Enterprise Risk Management (ERM), focusing on "Define early-warning object-Identify business risk-Design index system Establishing an early-warning model", this thesis try to build the basic proposition of property insurance company risk early-warning system.The thesis first defines the "troubled" companies. Refering to domestic and foreign companies and the company's definition of normal standards and combining the current property insurance industry and the regulatory status quo, the thesis chooses the adequacy of the solvency standards as a decision problem. Because the solvency is a prerequisite for the survival of the insurance company, and it can maintain the basic interests of the insured guarantee. As a special risk management industry, insurance industry has many stakeholders, with a wide range of social nature. Insurance companies only have enough capacity for compensation and benefits, can effectively protect the interests of the insured, ensure that access to insurance contracts when the economy promised damages, achieve the steady development of the insurance industry, maintain social stability. Meanwhile, the solvency is need to for insurance industry to achieve sustainable development, and also is the core of the world insurance regulation. Therefore, the solvency problem of the adequacy as a judgement of the company's standards is appropriate.Secondly, based on the Enterprise Risk Management concepts and methods, with reference to theoretical research results and international regulatory standards of practice, design the property and casualty insurance company risk early-warning indicator system, and set the corresponding threshold. This thesis draws on theoretical study of domestic and international risk index system design and financial regulators to set the risk early-warning indicator system. With reference to comprehensive risk management (ERM) concept, the thesis try to find and analyze the risk factors answer "warning what" t;followed by the selection of the warning signs of early-warning indicators that can reveal the risk factors screening, indicating the representativeness of the risk variables. Based on the principles of comprehensive and systematic, the thesis selects 10 categories and 51 indicators to build early-warning system. On this basis, according to the company's actual operating data related to availability, the thesis further categories 5 of 18 financial indicators and sets corresponding risk warning t threshold as an objective risk assessment of early-warning.Following, the thesis is to solve the problem on "how to early warning" by early-warning model to achieve the ultimate goal of pre-alarm level. This is the core and focus of the thesis. First, data acquisition and processing. The thesis dealt with related data, for the first time take into account the results of the practitioner's subjective perception and objective financial statement data, as much as possible to combine theory with practice. Then, calculate the indexes'(including the 18 financial indicators) weight by treating the subjective questionnaire data appropriately by. Based on the China Insurance Yearbook (mainly 2004-2010), the thesis obtain the corresponding data and process them initially, then normalize the corresponding data according to the 18 indicator's weight, and it provides an effective data base for the risk early-warning system. Secondly, choice of methods of risk warning. This thesis has been selected to trial a variety of risk warning measurement methods and found that some method are effective on early-warning of insurance in foreign countries, or in securities of domestic banks, or in other companies, but not in the risk early-warning of China's insurance company. The reason is that China's insurance industry relatively short development time, the insurance data is imperfect, and insurance accounting standards often change. After argument, the thesis chose three relatively effective ways-from the deviation analysis, principal component analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to assess the annual risk of the corresponding property insurance companies respectively, and test the effectiveness both of index system and the threshold, which would provide a theoretical reference to early-warning risk for property insurance companies.This thesis selects 21 insurance companies which sharing the market more than 90 percent as a research goal, based on their nearly 6 years annual data, with the risk of deviation analysis to measure single index, the principal component analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methods on a comprehensive evaluation of the risk status, and test the effectiveness. With the CIRC solvency index of property insurers as a reference, the thesis will use the results obtained by various methods contrasting the practice, to achieve a close integration of theory and practice. Thus proving the theoretical value and practical significance.The effect by choosing deviation method as an initial means of early-warning to measure the risk of the companies each year is not ideal. Single index is a measure of risk early-warning within the last several years away from the bad company of the same indicator, and the deviation were divided into A, B, C, D four levels in order from small to large. On the problems of the company will get a "record". Then all the problems of all records of the company's summary, with "the number of alarm" to measure the size of the corresponding risk indicators and early-warning of its sort. The larger deviation means higher risk; one can measure both the various indicators for each year of the company's risk and the size of the company's risk measurement order; the other hand, can also be indicators of risk for each year the size of each size measure. Then, according to all the various indicators in the measurement of annual results of companies calculate the corresponding index. It shows with the results of the four early-warning indicators of 2006-2009 to early warn insolvency of the companies in the end of 2010, the overall effect is not very satisfactory. One year earlier the data, early-warning effect worse.The thesis chooses principal component analysis to study the relevant risk indicator for each year of the each company empirically. The creation of the index system of information may exist in the coupling and non-independence situation. In order to avoid such indicators exist linear correlation between the phenomena and get a comprehensive risk profile reflects a comprehensive index system, the thesis apply principal component analysis for processing, and data were analyzed for each year. Test results showed that principal component analysis carried out on the insurance company risk profile analysis of the results of early-warning is not ideal. Early-warning on 2008 and 2009 data, errors of type I and type II are up to 75%, the noise signal ratio as high as 92.3%. The results show that the effect of principal component analysis method is less than ideal for the insolvency of property insurance company in end of 2010.In this thesis, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, with the corresponding factor as early-warning indicators, with the data of the 21 property insurance companies during 6-year period of 2004-2009 (some indicators only of 5 years) as the value of early-warning factors, taking the monitoring indicators of the China Insurance Regulatory Commission(CIRC) as the warning threshold; then get early-warning value of each indicator by comparing every company's data with warning threshold; finally, get the warning result of every year, every company from indicators of the weighted average. The results are consistent with the reality.Comparing the above three methods, the deviation analysis and principal component analysis results are not very satisfactory, the reason is not the methods and indicators themselves, but the two methods completely based on quantitative indicators, while domestic insurance is not in high quality of statistical data, incomplete data problems are more prominent, moreover, the statistical standards and accounting system frequent change, further affecting the quality of statistical data. So, at present, purely quantitative indicators and methods for insurance company risk warning are in absence of sufficient base of data. Nevertheless, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is proved to be more effective, because it was adapted to the current data quality and quantity of the domestic status quo. The method is determined by expert survey index weight, quantitative analysis and qualitative analyses are combined after technical processing to make up for deficiencies on the quality and quantity. Therefore, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method can serve as a preferred method to set up property insurance company risk warning system.Finally, in order to play an effective early-warning systems and access to continuous improvement, this thesis makes policy recommendations for establishment of early-warning system; principles, framework are described in detail, and the effective operation of the system and the gradual improvement of the required supporting environment are analyzed.The innovation of this paper may as follows:First of all, it may be the first in China to design a system of early-warning indicators and set the appropriate warning threshold adapt to the current level of management and supervision. This article set in the design of early warning indicators and thresholds, the extensive reference to the domestic and international results of theoretical research and practical application, but more important is to adapt to data availability, in close connection with domestic property insurance industry practice, improving early warning indicator system and valve Value of effectiveness. Second, this paper dealt with related data, for the first time take into account the results of the practitioner's subjective perception and objective financial statement data, as much as possible to avoid the problems of theory standing far away from practice. Appropriate by experts subjective survey data, its effective treatment, to obtain the corresponding results (weight), combined with customer financial data, for dealing with the data, the risk for later provide an effective basis for early warning. Third, with the use of a variety of empirical techniques and panel data, the thesis establishes an early-warning model against the risks of property insurers. Fourth, with the first published data of actual situation of the property insurance companies' solvency as a reference, this thesis makes test with practice.
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