The Prediction Method And Its Application Of Civil Building Energy Consumption In China

China has a huge number of civil buildings and has grown rapidly. By the end of2009, civil building energy consumption has accounted for over30%of total social terminal energy consumption. In future, with accelerating economic development and urbanization and increasing people's living standards, such growing momentum will continue for a period of time. Huge demands of civil buildings for energy consumption have exerted great pressure on China's energy supply, energy security and resource environment. Against this backdrop, scientific and reasonable forecast of energy consumption will be of great significance to improve theoretical system for civil building energy consumption study, meet the future development needs of civil building energy consumption and achieve China's emission reduction targets.By using both qualitative and quantitative analysis method, the paper studies on methods of forecasting civil building energy consumption, analyze macro factors affecting civil building energy consumption, establishes model of predicting civil building energy consumption and completes empirical analysis, predicts future demands of civil building energy consumption and proposes policy suggestions for sustainable development of China's civil building energy consumption. The main innovative works are summarized as follows:1. Based on system engineering theories, the paper analyzes major macroeconomic factors affecting civil building energy consumption. First, it establishes indicator system of micro factors affecting civil building energy consumption and uses gray system theory and gray correlation analysis method to determine the correlation between civil building energy consumption. Studies show that civil building energy consumption has relatively high correlation with various micro factors in indicator system.2. Applies cointegration theory of econometrics to build cointegration analysis forecast model and error correction model for civil building energy consumption. It studies long-run equilibrium relationship and short-term dynamics between civil building energy consumption and affecting factors and conducts quantitative analysis on relationship between various factors and civil building energy consumption. Studies show that civil building energy consumption has long-run equilibrium and short-term dynamic relationship with total terminal energy consumption, ratio of tertiary industry increase to GDP, urbanization ratio, per capita household consumption expenditure of urban and rural residents, energy consumption per million added value in tertiary industry and year-end total civil building completion amount. It applies statistical reliability to prove accuracy of the prediction model and prediction ability of prediction model by evaluation methods within and outside samples.3. Applies civil building energy consumption cointegration analysis model and scenario analysis to forecast civil building energy consumption from2015to2020. By setting different scenarios of future economic, social and people's lives development and carbon emissions reduction and combining with predictive models, it predicts civil building energy consumption under different scenarios.4. According to empirical analysis and model predictions, it proposes policy suggestions for sustainable development of China's civil building energy consumption.