| People focus their eyes on the real estate because of its particularity. From the view of macro-economy, the real estate is the basic and supportive industry, which has a close relationship with 50 production sections around it; from the view of the government, it must take the particularity of the real estate into consideration when making financial and monetary policies; from the view of common people, the stand or fall of the real estate is a realistic problem which can determine whether people can live and work in peace and contentment. So the development of the real estate influences the development of the national economy. How to develop the real estate continually and healthily has gotten attention from the circle of theory and enterprises whereas it's special status. In China, however, the real estate is restricted by three factors: first, it is a short time for China to develop its real estate and the real estate must undergo a developing process during the transition from planning economy to market economy. While the process is very short that compared with the development of the real estate in western countries. Second, there exists regional discrepancy in the development of China's economy. And there is imbalance between the sea border and the inner regions, so is the real estate. The differences lie in the different time of getting-up, different degree, level, scale, speed, jack-up potential and other regional imbalances and finally the influence of the policies is different regions and cities. The present system blocked the healthy development of the real estate differently. So it is essential to have a research on the rules of the development of regional real estate in China under this circumstance. First of all, summarize the present situation at home and abroad. The main contents of the research include: economic theories related, market condition of the real estate, the rules of supply and demand of the real estate, the price of the real estate, the macro-control policies of the real estate and the regional discrepancy and developing strategies of the real estate. The features of the present research are as follows: 1. there are many researches on the economic theories of the development of the real estate and fluctuating rules of the real estate market abroad, which demonstrate the relationship between the real estate and other economic variables by using the way of statistical analysis and related models. 2. The domestic research just follows the theoretical outcome from outside, which is mainly the demonstration study and present development of the real estate, such as land policies, program evaluation, return of investment and so forth and the research method is single. 3. The present researches seldom aim at interior mechanism of interaction between regional development of the real estate and regional economy. 4. There is no demonstration on how to estimate strategic developing goal, how to minute macro-control measures and ways, how to bring to success according to the special condition in different regions in the government's making policies and enterprises' strategic planning. Moreover, the developments of real estate in domestic regions and foreign countries are analyzed, from which we can see obvious regional discrepancy between china and foreign countries. Through reviews investigations, the correlativity and causality between regional real estate and economy on the basis of reviews are analyzed and come up with theoretical relation from qualitative analysis: real estate industry is becoming an important force for the improvement of regional economy and real estate industry is also developed through the improvement of regional economy. According to real data, adopting time-sequence correlation Granger causality analyses, using Eview,I have done demonstration test quantificationally and drawn the following conclusions: 1. The correlativity is very high between real estateindustry and regional economy and mock figures are basically close to reality; 2.The causality between real estate industry and regional economy varies as for regions. In developed regions, there isn't necessarily strong causality between real estate industry and regional economy; in less-developed regions there isn't necessarily causality between real estate industry and regional economy; it can be single causality:Real estate industry is the cause of increasing regional economy or the opposite situation. Quantificational study indicates that although there is strong correlativity between real estate industry and regional economy, not all the regions have such causality and the situation has no relation to the development of economy. As for real estate industry, there are also other effective factors causing the changes in it except for regional economy, so the research in regional real estate is also needed.According to the viewpoint of system theory, seeing about the operation process in the supply chain of real estate, seeking the factors that influence the development of real estate, and using the analyzing method that combines the internal and external factors of the system, building up the relations between each kind of factor. On the base of research on actuality and factor, we made a systemic study on cycle regulation and supply and demand regulation of the real estate industry in our country. The study on period regulation of the real estate industry in our country is divided into four parts: 1.The study on the theory of economical cycle, including economical cycle and fluctuation,the movement stage of economical cycle, kinds of economical cycle and a review of economical cycle. 2. The study on the theory of real estate industry cycle, including how to define the concept of real estate industry cycle and its characteristics.3. The analysis on the periodic fluctuation regulations of real estate industry, at home and abroad, mainly in the USA, Japan, HK, Chinese Taiwan, and autonomous region of Guangxi. 4. The empirical study on the periodic fluctuation regulations of real estate industry in our country. First,we made emulation and simulation research on the main factors that affect the regional real estate industry in China, on the base of system dynamics and covariance method. Consequently, we got the changing regulations, curve and simulated data of every unknown parameter the simulated data are nearly the same with the real ones, which indicates that the models are built credibly. The results tell us that most simulated data are tally with the real ones. Second, there is the study on the periodic fluctuation regulations of regional real estate industry on the base of system dynamics. We make use of the causal diagram and system flow diagram in system dynamics to set up mathematics models, then we analyze the factors relationship and restricting mechanism, open out the dynamic behaviors and periodic regulations of the system, at last we simulate the regulation curve of regional real estate industry using the soft named DYNAMO and the self-adapted characteristic of the minus feedback. The periodic fluctuation regulations of regional real estate industry are: 1.The construction rate of houses changes according to the change of sales rate, both of which change to the same direction and at the period of same time. However, the supply and demand rate changes a stage alter than the construction rate, which keeps consistent with the delaying of houses. And also, the sales rate of earth changes at the same frequency and period of time, because of the change of construction rate, but the exploration rate of earth will change to the same direct after two periods of time. 2,The developed quantity of the land rises at first, then drops, and again rises and drops, this is because the land development quantity is bigger than the construction quantity in the beginning, it means that the inflow of the developed quantity of the land is bigger than the outflow, and it gradually rises;When the land development quantity is equal to or surpassing the construction quantity, the outflow of the developed quantity of the land is bigger than the inflow, so the developed quantity starts to drop, then it changes the same. Similarly, the change mechanism of the house supplied quantity is almost the same. 3,Each variable has direct or indirect changes with the sales area periodicity. This indicates that the present situation of the real estate industryis determined by the interior mechanism of the system, its periodicity is the result of the mutually affects of the factors in the system. The research of the supply and demand rule of China's regional real estate industry includes: 1, analyzing the supply and demand rules of region real estate industry using the western economic principle, and analyzing the development rules of the supply and demand of region real estate industry from the total quantity balance, the speed balance, the structure balance. 2,Using gray connection model, analyzing the relativity of the factors that influent the effective demand of real estate in the regions with different economy development level, eductions: regarding China's economy developed areas, the order of these factors that affect the sales volume of commodity apartments due to the importance of each factor is: urbanization levelï¹¥per capita incomeï¹¥average per capita GDPï¹¥local populationï¹¥year average consuming spending per person of cities' inhabitantï¹¥average selling priceï¹¥the completed areas of commodity apartments; regarding China's economy undeveloped areas: average per capita GDPï¹¥local populationï¹¥per capita incomeï¹¥urbanization levelï¹¥the completed areasï¹¥year average consuming spending per person of cities' inhabitantï¹¥average selling price. After reasoning and analysis, we think this conclusion has regularity. 3,Through the research of the contribution that the real estate industry makes to GDP in Guangdong and Guangxi, eductions: the real estate industry is the main pulling power of the regional economic development in both Guangdong and Guangxi, especially in the economical undeveloped area, along with need of economical development, the development of real estate industry more and more becomes the propellor of economy development. 4. Compared and analyzed present situation of the market development of commodity house in Guangdong and Guangxi. We can educe: â‘ The investment of real estate development in Guangdong and Guangxi totally keeps the low position and steady growth situation. â‘¡The commodity house market structure in Guangdong and Guangxi has all been adjusted, and housing stillis the lead in real estate market, but the market demand for the commerce house has increased day by day. â‘¢The sale tendency of commodity house is more prosperous, and the selling price is steady and falling. But to Guangdong, that the complete acreage of commodity house is far bigger than the sales acreage is the hidden danger to the healthy development of the real estate market, which needs the reasonable control of relative department. 5. Having summarized the supply and demand index of real estate, and has made evaluation towards whether the real estate market in our country currently is too hot, and thinks that there are over hot and structure excess phenomenon of real estate in some area of China, but could not conclude only in light of this that the real estate already belongs to "the bubble economy". If correct and reasonable control is used, the real estate can be healthy and stable, and can advance countermeasure and suggestion. Finally, in the foundation of present situation research, factor research as well as in development regulation research, conducts the research on region policy of real estate housing industry in our country First, through analyzing the successional variation process of housing industry policy domestic and abroad, having explored the intrinsic regularity of the formulation of the real estate housing industry policy, pointed out problems, and presented countermeasure and suggestions; Next, having opened out the formulation regulation of region housing industry policy in our country. Finally, through analysis towards the development prospect of real estate housing industry in our country, having presented the necessary policy and solution that can promote the healthy development of the region real estate industry. Having adjusted measures to local conditions, and planned the development of real estate industry with pertinence, the continual, fast, stable, healthy, and comprehensive development can be realized.
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