| Rational scale in fixed assets investment (for short: rational scale of investment) is defined as the investment scale which is to promote the development of society and economy, and to improve economic interest, which is restricted by all kinds of resources and environment factors under a specifical development of society and economy. Rational scale of investment should meet the development of economy and full employment as well as take account of the carrying capacity of resource and environment, that is, to implement the sustainable development of society and economy. So, the rational scale of investment plays an important role in boosting the smooth development of economy and screed economic waves; studying it is significant for the government to set national economic and social development plan, and to set the macro-control policy.There are some problems of concept and methods in the area of investment scale decision. Firstly, the decision methods are relatively backward, which mainly depend on qualitive judgement experience and lack of quantitive, scientific analysis. Secondly, the point of analysis is single, which primarily get investment demand from the angle of how to make sure the economic growth speed and lack of mulit-angle analysis. Thirdly, the basic data is short, information tracking and computer-aided decision-making system not perfect enough, and etc.The dissertation sums up the domestic and foreign investment scale decision-making theories and proposes the systemic decision-making model for investment scale against the problems in fixed assets investment area, that is, to analyze comprehensively the rational investment scale through five factors, such as economic growth demand, inertia investment growth demand, investment benefit, resource restriction and investment project structure. Then the rational scale of fixed assets investment of"the 11th five-year plan"in Shenzhen was analyzed and relative policy was proposed, which can be taken as the reference for scientific decision of investment scale and macro-economy policy. Below is the studying contents and conclusion:i) Investment scale analysis based on the demand of economic growth. Firstly start from investment-economy growth model, analyze their functional relation and research how to work out the investment growth rate in accordance with the target of economy growth. Through the analysis of the quantitative inter-relationship between investment and economic growth, obtains a function of investment growth rate, economic growth and investment benefit rate. According to the annual economic growth target of Shenzhen during the"the 11th five-year plan", investment rate of past five years and statstics data, calculates the investment growth rate, and get the range of investment scale during"the 11th five-year plan".ii) Investment scale analysis based on the inertia growth of investment scale. First make an analysis of intrinsic factors influencing investment, use time series model, regression model and multi-ingredient model to analyze and forecast the investment scale, and implement the comparation among different models. We propose the multi-ingredient model initively as one of the comparative model to solve the problem of multicollinearity. Because the fitting degree of model was significant affected by self structure and the selected parameters, a method was initiated which integrated horizontal and vertical optimization. It was to implement the optimization of"same models and variables but different data series length, same models but different variables, and different models". Base on this and computer programs, the range of fixed assets investment scale of Shenzhen during the"the 11th five-year plan"is determined.iii) Investment scale analysis based on the investment benefit. First clarifies the concept of investment benefit indicators, makes a comparison between investment rate, investment benefit rate, ICOR of past years in Shenzhen and international corresponding indicators. Then analyze the historic data and get the rational interval of parameter ICOR during"the 11th year-five plan"in Shenzhen, and then work out the upper limit of investment rate. Moreover, use grey theory and data of past years to work out the lower limit. That is, the investment rate should be larger than that threshold, the economic system can maintain energe exciting and economy will keep rapit developing and good benefit. So the rational range was come up, that is, the rational investment rate and the correspongding investment scale is determined.iv) Investment scale analysis based on resource constraints. In accordance with relationship among consumption, savings and investment, and the capital source analysis, make analysis on the capital environment of fixed assets investment during the"the 11th five-year plan"in Shenzhen. During this period, deposit amount will be greater than the financial resources needed for investment volume in Shenzhen. Investment funds remain fully promised, but structural contradictions exist to a certain degree. On the other hand, although Shenzhen is lack of land resource, but with the urban land transformation, the rebuilding of"village in city"and land consolidation utilization, the land resource can also guarantee the land demand during"11th Five-Year Plan".v) Investment scale analysis based on investment projects scale structure. First, clarify the concept of investment projects scale structure and the function of major projects; analyze the scale of major projects in Shenzhen during the"11th five year plan". And then calculate the total investment scale according to the percentage of major projects scale to the total scale of past years. The demand for major project during the"the 11th five-year plan"is strong, and the project repertory is in abundance, which is in good condition to support the scale of fixed assets investment.vi) Comprehensive analysis and policy suggestion. Proposed the analyis model for rational scale of fixed assets investment and the rational scale suggestion of fixed assets investment in Shenzhen during"the 11th five-year plan"based on the comprehensive analysis of the five factors. The economic significance is that: economy growth demand restrict the lower bound and inertia investment growth restrict the upper bound of rational scale. If the investment scale is in this interval, the capital supply, land resource, project supportance and investment benefit are good. In accordance with the problems of fixed assets investment area in Shenzhen, we propose five macro-economy policy advices from demand of economy, trends of inertial growth, intensive utilization of resource, reform of investment mechanism, project deposit of government investment and major projects supports.Innovation of this dissertation:(i) Propose the concept of rational scale of fixed assets investment and its analyses model, and make comprehensive analysis on the rational scale from five factors, which is demand of economic growth, trends of inertial growth, benefits of investment, constraints of resource and the structure of investment projects scale.(ii) Propose the multi-ingredient model, which can avoid the problem of multi-collinearity and make the model more suitable to reflect the economy meaning; and propose the systemic optimization method to make the forecast result more scientific and reliable.(iii) Applies an international comparison of investment benefit indicators investment to get the maximum value of the reasonable investment rate during"the 11th five-year plan", and applies grey system theory to establish a model to calculate the minimum value of the reasonable investment rate for Shenzhen during"the 11th five-year plan", thus obtains the rational investment rate of Shenzhen with qualitative and quantitative methods.
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