A Study On The Investment Risk Management Of Concessionary Expressway

In recent years, with the rapid development of China's expressway, the concessionaire operating as a business model of great vitality and competitiveness has been more and more widely used in expressway construction and operations. In view of the difference between the concessionaire expressway project and ordinary infrastructure project in lifecycle, legal constraint and risk characteristics, the risk factor analysis and management of the concessionaire expressway project determine the success of the concessionaire expressway project investment. In recent years, with the deepening research on expressway risk management, there were a lot of concerned research results. But most of them are limited to some areas of expressway risk management. It is not comprehensive and fully revealed that the influence of various risk factors and conditions on concessionaire expressway project investment.This paper chose the investment risks of concessionaire expressway project as research object and aimed at finding out theories and methods that can identify, measure, evaluate and pre-control the investment risks of concessionaire expressway project effectively. Based on domestic and foreign investment and risk management theories, combined with variation of economic and social environment, this paper integrated risk management theory and early warning management theory and adopted combination of theoretical research and demonstration prove, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, static analysis and dynamic analysis, systemic analysis and comparative analysis to discuss the construction of investment risk early-warning management system of concessionaire expressway project. Furthermore, this paper introduced real-option theory into investment risk management field of concessionaire expressway project, trying to promote a new method and perspective in the investment risk management on concessionaire expressway project.The main contents of this paper are as follows:(1) This paper researched the economic characteristics of concessionaire operating model for details with different economic theories. With Public Goods Theory, it analyzed the internal mechanism of concessionaire expressway operating. By using Cost Benefit Analysis method, it evaluated the costs and social benefits of concessionaire expressway operating. Applying requirement level theory, price theory and game theory, it revealed the price forming mechanism of concessionaire expressway operating.(2) Aimed at prevention of risk factors, using early-warning theory, this paper constructed an early-warning management system for concessionaire expressway investors, including a risk recognition and measurement subsystem, a risk evaluation and early-warning subsystem and a risk response subsystem.(3) Based on researching on the investment risk resource, characteristics and structure of concessionaire expressway operating project, this paper analyzed the inducement of the investment risk and studied the risk factors in different stages and different styles that may influence the investment decision. On the basis of these research results, this paper identified the investment risks of concessionaire expressway operating project using Risk Breakdown Structure method.(4) According to the characteristics of concessionaire expressway operating project, this paper constructed an early-warning evaluation index system, which included seven first indexes and twenty-two secondary indexes and it can involve the main investment risks that influenced concessionaire expressway operating project. And on the basis of this system, fuzzy hierarchy evaluation model and BP nerve net model were constructed and used to evaluate the investment risks of concessionaire expressway operating project, and finally output early-warning signals of evaluation results. The two models achieved consistent results in the demonstration, which strengthened the veracity of the risk early-warning signals.(5) This paper demonstrated the feasibility of the real-option method, analyzed the real-option contained in the investment of concessionaire expressway operating project and further proved real-option method can improve investment decision flexibility of the investment decision and investment risk management by giving examples.(6) This paper constructed an integrated risk response system, offering response and prevention steps from risks of different levels, different hierarchies and different types.