Study Of Scenario Analysis In Strategic Environmental Assessment In China

Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) inherently faces various uncertainties when environmental impacts are predicted. The uncertainty is caused by the strategic decision-the object of SEA. Thus, it is crucial to provide with sound prediction of impacts in the future so that the conclusions of SEA are scientific and reliable. Otherwise, the SEA can not convince the decision-makers that the environmental concerns and recommendations and mitigations of SEA should be integrated into the decision-making. Most of the SEA theories derive from project environmental assessment and are sufficient to cope with uncertainty. It is necessary to explore theories that can underpin the prediction of SEA on the basis of which SEA practitioners could examine the concerned complex system at a strategic level, look beyond current trends, get insights into possible futures and conduct reasonable prediction to the end. This thesis studies the uncertainties in SEA and researches how to integrate the underpinning theories into SEA and how they can advance prediction in SEA. It is meaningful for SEA research in this field in China and helpful to establish the basis for specific prediction techniques and methods.After exploring different types of uncertainties in SEA, this thesis asserts the structural uncertainty that lies inside and outside the complex system and predetermined factors both affect the quality of prediction most. According to characteristics of these two types of factors, this thesis proposes that theories of futures study, complex system and path dependence can be regarded as fundament for prediction in SEA. The requirements for SEA prediction techniques and methods are concluded from these three theories. By examining scenario analysis (SA) and its advantages, it is concluded that SA as an important methodology for futures study can satisfy the requirements and adapt to SEA in China.However, SA has been simplified and misused in most SEA in China to date due to lack of understanding of the future and SA. Drawing on experiences of SA in environmental assessment cases all across the world, this thesis recommends SA modes for SEA in China, viz. "plan-scenario-assessment" and combined qualitative and quantitative SA mode. Meanwhile, inductive or deductive mode of SA should be flexibly adopted.Under the recommended modes, the core of SA-scenario building-is discussed. It is concluded that driving forces for future development lie inside and outside the complex system. Their sources include the plan text, planning process, implementation process, inner natural environmental subsystem, external policies, socio-economic conditions, technology development and external natural environmental system. The roots of the drivers should be explored through retrospective analysis and analogous analysis. This thesis also proposes a checklist of driving forces of the complex system at four levels (including global, national, provincial/regional and local levels) and in four aspects (including social, economic, technological and environmental). The checklist is practical for SEA practitioners. A four-phase methodology is also developed to guide establishment of scenarios using inductive and deductive SA.Subsequently, in-depth methodological research on SA in SEA is conducted. A method set including generating techniques, integrating techniques and consistency techniques is established. The function and instructions for each technique in the context of SEA in China are discussed. This thesis develops a SA framework that can be integrated into SEA process in China. The whole technical process is elaborated. That is, tasks of SA and the integration with SEA tasks and techniques available are illustrated for each step from strategy analysis to follow-up.To the end, two SA cases in SEA are analyzed. In the case "SA in SEA for Binhai New Area Development", the methods for identifying and analyzing driving forces of complex system are tested. The use of integrated and sub-scenarios and the prediction and analysis based on scenarios are elaborated as well. In the case "SA in SEA for Hubei Road Network Plan", the feasibility of the SA framework proposed in this thesis is demonstrated.