Delayed Marriage And Sex Ratio Rising Economic Analysis

Economists have discussed the relations between the population and economy for a few of centuries since Thomas Robert. The economics focus on the effects of each stage of life from birth, growth to death on the economy. However, their study on marriage that has a vital influence on the stages above fails to keep up with the pace of social economy. The existing literatures have not given enough focus on the causes led to delay in marriage and the rising ratios and their effects on economy. Chinese marriage has shown new features——delays in marriage and rising sex ratio at birth since the nineteen ninties.The causes of delays in marriage and the rising ratios at birth will be studied in a view of economic point in the first section of this dissertation, then their economic impact on saving rates and growth will be studied in the second section of this dissertation. They are both independent and interrelated. From the point of view of economics, the delays are the hindered process of searching&matching for single men and women in the marriage market. Further, fertility can be seen as a continuation of the matching results of them in the market. It shows a strong "male preference", which resulted in the high ratio. The basic conclusion is that the rising ratios have delayed male marriage while the expanding income gaps have delayed female marriage. The productivity differences between men and women resulted in the high ratio, which makes the saving rates rise and promotes the growth. The delays increase the rates, but decrease the growth. Therefore, the both questions are very important.The causes of the delays and the condition of the balanced sex ratio will be examined in the first section. On delays in marriage. The rising sex ratio at birth will increase search costs of man and reduce their yield of searching, which will make the process of entering marriage for men blocked but promoted for women into marriage in the case of homogeneous men and homogeneous women. An increase in average female gap leads to a corresponding decline in the male proportion but an increase in the female proportion through increasing searching cost but decreasing their yield of searching for women in the case of heterogeneous women but homogeneous men; The model indicates that an increase in average male gap leads to a corresponding rise in the proportion of the population of female unmarried but a decline in the proportion of the population of male unmarried through increasing searching cost but decreasing their yield of searching for women in the case of heterogeneous men but homogeneous women. The simultaneous equation regressions with the data of province-level statistics from1995to2009shows that the rising ratio is a reason of delay in marriage for men and the expanding average income gap is a main reason for the increasing female proportion. The rising ratio is significantly in positive correlation with the male proportion but negatively correlated with the female proportion.Income gap are also significantly in positive correlation with the females proportion but negatively correlated with the male proportion.Then, I analyzed the conditions when the sex structure tends to equilibrium. From the perspective of economics, giving birth to a male or not and giving birth to a daughter or not in marriages, which considered to be a result continuation where men and women searched and matched in the marriage market. Income difference that the family gives birth to a boy or a girl and wage difference that male or female productivity, are the key causes that lead to gender structure imbalance. The condition of the structure to balance is that the ratio between the income of male and female is equal to the ratio between their wage of male and female. This can be extended to, the sex ratio will decline with the rise of female economic returns and with the rise of house price. Using1995-2009chinese provincial panel data, we find that female higher education popularization and house price are very important factors in decreasing the ratio. The both factors are both significantly negative correlation with the ratio.Based on the above analysis, the second section of the dissertation focus on what effect does the delay and the rising have on the savings and growth. Saving for marriage means the delays increase the rate. The delay has a negative effect on the growth because of the deferred gains from delayed marriage. Using Chinese provincial panel data from1995to2010, it indicates that the delay has a significantly positive effect on savings, which could explain70%of the rise of the saving; The0to4years old sex ratio also has a significantly positive effect on savings; The rising of the proportion exerts a negative effect on the growth, which means the delay have an adverse effect on the growth, while the sex ratio have a significantly positive effect on the growth, which means the rising ratio has a positive effect on the growth. The delay and the rising ratio are very important factors for the savings and the growth.According to the second section about the economic impact of the delay and the rising ratio, we should slow down the trend of the delay and balance the ratio for arrangement of the consumption and savings and promoting the growth. According to the first section about examining the reason of the delay and the rising ratio, the government should adjust the social economic policy to reduce the income gap and guide the ratio at birth to a natural state for coping with the problem of delays in marriage. The government should pay more attention to enhancing the female productivity and economic returns, which makes the income gap between men and women narrow, to guide the ratio tends to balance.