Study Of China’s Food Security On The Background Of Urbanization, Industrialization, Informatization And Agricultural Modernization

With the development of China’s economy and society, informatization and agricultural modernizationwill bring a historical opportunity to China’s food production. At the same time, the rapid development ofurbanization and industrialization will occupy the resources and bring significant changes in consumptionstructure. Therefore, the ultimate goal of this dissertation is to analyze China’s food security situation,investigate the factors that may impact China’s food security with the background of development ofinformatization, agricultural modernization, urbanization and industrialization, analyze future condition offood security, proposes thestrategic targets and countermeasures.This dissertation analyzes the current situation of food security in China and introduces the developmentand trend of China’s urbanization, industrialization, informatization, and agricultural modernization. Basedon these discussions, this dissertation analyzes the influences which the "four modernization" brings toChina’s food supply and demand. Specifically, this dissertation uses quantitative analysis and statisticaldescription to investigate the factors that influence production. Then this dissertation studies contributions ofyield and sown area to "increase for the tenth consecutive year" of food production, as well as thecontributions of absolute yield and structure adjustment, by using software Stata and empirical method. Thisdissertation also analyzes the specific factors that influence the food consumption by using principalcomponent analysis, and finds the urbanization is the most important factor. Based on this, this dissertationpredicts the future situation of the food production and consumption, and analyzes the equilibrium state ofChina’s food supply and demand. Finally, based on the research above, this dissertation proposes the strategicchoices to maintain food security of China under the background of development of informatization,agricultural modernization, urbanization and industrialization.The main conclusions of this dissertation are as follows: the founding in food production is that, sincethe establishment of PRC, food production of China has greatly increased, sown area remains basically stable,at the same time, the regional distribution and variety structure has changed remarkably, for corn becomes themain important crop and north area becomes the center of production increase. The founding in food demandis that, the amount of food demand in China has gradually decreased, yet the feed cereal, industrial cereal andother food consumption have greatly increased, and become the major propulsion of the increase of foodconsumption. The development of informatization, agricultural modernization, urbanization andindustrialization has great impact on input level of production, planting willingness, production technologyand management methods. The empirical results show that, instead of sown area, the increase of China’s foodproduction mainly relies on increase of yield, which was impacted by both absolute yield and structureadjustment. The factors that influence China’s food consumption include urbanization, then population,industrialization, income, cereal price and diet habits. This dissertation applies the time series regressionanalysis and grey prediction model and draw the prediction that by the year2030, China’s food supply anddemand will be in a state of tight balance, with a shortage of25million tons of cereal. To cope with thissituation, China’s government should adjust the strategic goal and specific measures of food security, take 95%as the self-sufficiency rate of grain, and import rate should be restricted in5%. The government shouldtake measures in supply and demand to ensure the security level.