Analysis Of Carbon Emission Factors In China And DSGE Simulation Of Corresponding Carbon Economic Policies

At this stage, human activities lead to an increase in carbon dioxide emissions, affecting social and economic development is the international community consensus. As the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide, but also the largest energy consumer, China in the balance of socio-economic development and the cause of carbon emissions on a long way to go. Government needs to understand the main factors affecting China's carbon emissions and the right medicine, develop a rational and scientific carbon economic policy. Based on the production data and input-output data of China for nearly 20 years, this paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the impact of carbon economic policies on carbon emissions under the impact of technology, taking carbon emission influencing factors and carbon economic policies as the research objects. And use this model to simulate the impact of carbon tax and carbon tax on economic development. In view of the above requirements, this paper conducted a series of research and achieved the following results.(1) The impact of industrial energy consumption factors on carbon emissions was analyzed by LMDI. The results showed that the rapid increase of carbon emissions in China was mainly due to the fluctuation of economic growth cycle and the increase of industrial GDP. The fundamental reason is that the overall energy structure has not been improved, the use of a variety of clean energy is low, the main energy consumption is still dominated by coal. Using the input-output method to calculate the carbon emissions of domestic energy use in the past 30 years, the paper describes the basic situation of energy consumption in China. At present, China's household energy use carbon emissions in general at a low level, the energy consumption of residential energy needs to be further improved. From the point of view of carbon emission, the carbon emission of this part increases year by year, but the proportion of total carbon emission decreases year by year, and the growth rate of emission is much lower than the growth of consumption value. In this paper, carbon emissions from the perspective of indirect energy consumption of carbon dioxide emissions, compared to direct carbon emissions study, a more comprehensive description of the household energy use of carbon emissions.(2) By using the input-output method and the latest data from China Customs, the paper analyzes the implicit carbon emission problem in China's import and export trade. The results show that China is a major importers and exporters of carbon emissions, with the gradual increase in foreign trade, China's carbon dioxide emissions have increased year by year. An average of about 30% of the total import emissions for re-export demand, the actual consumption for domestic demand for their own import emissions average annual total emissions of about 75%, from the absolute import emissions, the actual import and re-export of imported emissions Are constantly increasing. In the context of accelerating economic globalization, with the change of China's position in the international division of labor, China's carbon emissions due to production is much larger than carbon emissions due to consumption, and China's accession to WTO in 2002, China's carbon emissions Of the growth rate is particularly rapid.(3) In this chapter, we use the DSGE model to simulate the carbon economic policies of the economic environment without carbon taxation and the carbon economy, and add the labor market factor into the theoretical model. In the face of technological shocks, carbon emissions, despite a decline in growth rates, have been positive in the economic environment in which carbon taxation has been found, and the carbon emissions growth rates in the carbon economy Which is less than the growth rate of carbon emission without carbon tax. That is to say, the carbon tax is conducive to reducing the growth rate of carbon emission, and finally there is a steady state of carbon emission, that is, there is a trend of dynamic convergence of carbon emissions. The optimal carbon tax is 75.5 yuan/ ton, the government to implement the carbon tax can make the government's economic cost of emission reduction minimum.