A Research On Carbon Emission Effect Of Economic Growth And The Change Of Industrial Structure

As a very important environmental pollutant,carbon emission has been paid wide attention for a long time.This is mainly due to the fact that carbon emission not only brings the global climate change,but also can trigger a chain reaction of many natural disasters.Carbon emission reduction can play a very good role in protecting the core interest of the people and guaranteeing the long-term development.The progress of carbon emission reduction of the economy needs to rely on overall cooperation and reasonable distribution of different industries.Focusing on the carbon emission reduction as the core discussion issue,based on the relative mature two driven framework of carbon emission analysis including economic growth and technological growth,we add the change of industrial structure to form three driven framework of carbon emission effect analysis.This not only enriches the theoretical research of carbon emission,but also provides a more complete and systematic theoretical support for accurate decomposition of carbon emission effect analysis and reasonable allocation of carbon emission reduction targets.Based on theoretical analysis of three driven framework,a systematic and detailed analysis and elaboration is given on measurement of carbon emission?carbon emission effect of economic growth.carbon emission effect of the change of industrial structure?forecast of carbon emission and the accomplishment of target of carbon emission reduction in China?carbon emission reduction path and industry development in the perspective of economic growth and the change of industrial structure.Under these analyses,we combined theory and reality?empirical and applied sudy in this paper.As a whole,five issues are discussed in this paper.Specific information is as follows.First,a framework named three driven of carbon emission is built.By improving the endogenous growth model(EGM)under the restriction of environment of Acemoglu(2009),we build a new EGM including economic growth?the change of industrial structure?technological progress.Retaining two-sector division of clean and pollution,we add carbon emission into the model.By analyzing the optimal decision making of the firm,it is found that the change effect of industrial structure is becoming the most important driving force which affects the flow of resources among firms.With setting the path of endogenous technology,we upgrade the technological progress effect in the original carbon emission formula to decompose into economic growth?the change of industrial structure and technological progress.Second,we measure and analyze the carbon emission.Using the reference method of IPCC,we measure carbon emission level of the industry of China under the perspective of producer and consumer.The measurement is given in whole and industry-specific.Time quantum is 1991-2013 for the perspective of producers while 6 years of 1995-2010 for consumer.According to the measurement and analysis,under the perspective of producer,carbon emission in the manufacturing has been accounting for more than 80%of the industry for a long time,even for more than 90%in some years.Industry that emits the most is black metal smelting and rolling processing industry?nonmetal mineral products?chemical raw materials and chemical products.Under the perspective of consumer,more than half of industries-specific of the manufacturing are net exports embodied carbon industry.Embodied carbon emission performance of the manufacturing rises comprehensively,while intensity of embodied carbon emission of import and export takes on a trend of polarization.To push net-export embodied carbon emission performance,we should encourage developing chemical fiber industry,clothing and other fiber products,leather,fur,feather and its products.Third,carbon emission effect of economic growth.By understanding and utilizing carbon emission rules,input-output of carbon emission can be raised obviously which is well leveraged.By using "development level" and "development structure" and introducing trade openness factor,we retest carbon emission EKC using 82 effective sample countries by threshold regression method.By this way,we solve the "Heterogeneity Difficulty" in the test of carbon emission EKC.As a result,some more targeted policy suggestions are given for carbon emission reduction of different countries of different development level.Meanwhile,"Pollution Heaven Hypothesis" is verified and an accomplishment path is given on a new measurement system.Furthermore,a test is given on carbon EKC in an industry.It is found that EKC doesn't exist in the manufacturing with methods including equation of detection and model test.Fourth,carbon emission effect of the change of industrial structure.By using improved imbalance degree method,we measure industrial structure rationalization of the manufacturing in China.Relying on the measurement result of imbalance of the industry,we put forward a hypothesis that excessive development is superior to the lack of development.Under Kaya identical equation framework,we prove that this hypothesis exists by fixed effect model.As for how to adjust industrial structure to reduce carbon emission,pure-labor industry,especially wood processing and bamboo,cane,palm,grass products industry and furniture should be supported.Besides,a discussion is also given to the relationship between the change of industrial structure and carbon emission in the perspective of ratio of production value using grey correlation analysis method.It is found that the correlation degree is strongest between carbon emission and copy of.printing,recording medium,' furniture manufacturing,and ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry,rubber and plastic products.Fifth,the forecast of carbon emission and accomplishment of the carbon emission reduction target in China.Based on three driven model,an equation is built to test carbon emission effect in the three driven model.By co-integration test,it is found that carbon emission effect of economic growth has the character of long-term stability and predictability.Considering economic growth speed under "the new normal" and "some who have only one child can have another" policy,we set different economic growth speed under three different scenarios,and forecast the change of carbon emission of China in 2030.According to the forecast result,the accomplishment of the target of carbon emission peak is difficult without carbon control while the target of carbon emission intensity can be realized in three scenarios.The accomplishment of carbon emission is more difficult than that of carbon emission intensity.With the trading system of the right of carbon emission more mature and carbon control policy system more perfect,it will be more optimistic for the accomplishment of the peak of carbon emission.