Migration,Four-Modernization Coordination And New-Style Urbanization

The new-style urbanization is an important development strategy of general modernization under China's economic new normal.In the theoretical assumption of “dual economy & dual system”,this paper builds a theoretical model on Chinese-style urbanization since the reform by combining the general urbanization rules and China's realities.It takes rural-urban migration(RUM)as the driving force and evolutionary clue of urbanization,analyzes the residents' multi-level demands of material and public products and the process of demands satisfying and urban-rural equilibrium achieving with RUM.It shows the importance of people-centered,and points out that organized migration is the key for long-term sustainable of urbanization.It also analyzes the economic growth,industrial structure evolution,urban-rural gap change,technological progress during urbanization,and suggests promoting the multi-coordination among urbanization and industrialization,informatization,agricultural modernization under the four-modernization synchronous development(FMSD)framework.A mathematical simulation based on the model gives the same urbanization evolution trend as official statistical data.Based on above,this paper makes micro and macro empirical analysis to confirm and extend theoretical analysis with official statistical data and Chinese General Social Survey data.It uses binary choice models to analyze influence factors of rural residents' different migration choices,such as remaining in rural(RIR),RUM and returning to rural(RTR),and uses conditional choice models to analyze the regional characteristics which RUM laborers like.Micro analysis finds,whether RUM or different migration regions choices,rural residents account the net returns by migration,decisions are depend on the comparison of returns(incomes,public services)and costs(migration,integration and living in urban).It uses provincial panel data structural vector auto regression model to analyze endogenous multi-coordination among urbanization and associate fields under FMSD.Macro analysis confirms the feasibility of FMSD strategy,and finds the weakness of poorly promoting urbanization by industrialization and agricultural modernization that historical and realistic reasons caused.According to the theoretical and empirical analysis,neglecting residents' demands and multi-coordination would be the most obvious weaknesses in current urbanization.Specifically,the migration for better development faces external institutional obstacles,migrants' weak ability,inadequate migrants' protection in cities,and migrants' demands are hard to satisfy.And the multi-coordination among urbanization and associate fields is also difficulty;urbanization promotes associate fields but doesn't get enough support from industrialization and agricultural modernization.Many factors caused the problems,the urban-rural dual system formed before reform under particular historical conditions has been neglecting residents' demands for long,and the heavy-industry-first extraordinary industrialization has weakened its sustainability and associate promotion.In addition,official promotion under decentralization system leads local governments' short-termism and beggar-thy-neighbour development deviations,and makes local governments prefer to land rather than population in urbanization,prefer to attracting investments rather than promoting multi-coordination,prefer to isolated development rather than regional cooperation,neither people-centered nor multi-coordination.The existing problems bring sustainable challenges to China's urbanization,so that leading the evolution path transform into new-style urbanization would be the only choice under economic new normal.This paper makes situation simulation for future urbanization based on the theoretical model,and chooses a proper urbanization path following both goal-oriented and problem-oriented.The path transforming needs people-centered and multi-coordination deviations and their support between each other.Achieving people-centered should surround migration,respecting residents' migration choices,enhancing their migration abilities,progressing public services for migration and population redistribution evolution,and helping migrants develop better.Achieving multi-coordination should break the barriers of interactional mechanism among urbanization and associate fields,forming an organic systematized FMSD framework,especially enhancing promoting of industrialization and supporting of agricultural modernization to urbanization,and improving urbanization quality by informatization.