Study On The Present Evaluation And Trend Prediction For Integrated Eco-industrial Park

With the continuous development of industrial economy, human acquires more and more material wealth, but also causes a series of serious problems in the meantime, such as ecological damage?environmental pollution?exhaustion of resources, etc. As a new type of economy apart from traditional developing one, ecological industrial park is playing a tremendous role in the development of current regional economy and society. Our country is positively developing ecological industrial parks, but most of them are comprehensive ones. It's of great significance that how to value the current situation of the construction of integrated ecological industrial park, to predict the trend of its development scientifically, and then to provide scientific policymaking and reference for the construction and regulation of integrated ecological industrial parks.This thesis designs scientifically for present evaluation path and trend prediction of development path of integrated ecological industrial park according to the integration of relevant basic theory and methodological theory about integrated ecological industrial park, and does positive research by the example of Harbor Bridge Ecological Industrial Park in Yongchuan, Chongqing. The following are the concrete content:(1) Theoretical integration of basic theory and methodological theory of evaluation and prediction about integrated ecological industrial park. According to commentate and summarize the relevant basic theories about integrated ecological industrial park, including the theories about sustainable development?circular economy?industrial ecology?cleaner production, etc. it gets ideas by abstracting system structure?measurable indicators? evaluation system and standard specification of relevant basic theories, to design?evaluate and predict the hierarchical structure?specific targets?evaluation system?evaluation standard, etc. It also gets ideas by abstracting specific evaluation methods and specific evaluation pattern of relevant methodological theories, according to commentate and summarize the evaluation and prediction theory of comprehensive ecological industrial park including comprehensive evaluation theory and trend prediction theory; Apply to the comprehensive systematic evaluation method and quantitative trend prediction theory to evaluate and predict the park. It provides theoretical reference and methodological support for the designs of current construction situation evaluation path and development trend prediction path of the park, according to the theoretical integration of the evaluation and prediction about comprehensive ecological industrial park.(2) Design for the current construction situation evaluation path of integrated ecological industrial park. It clears the purposes?problems that should be attentive? principles and thoughts of the design for evaluation path, according to analyze the objective demands. In the component element of hierarchical structure, it designs three structures of objective?principle and index. The principle structures in it includes economy operation? ecological network?resource utilization?environmental protection?technological support? policy management and social development. In the component element of evaluation index system, it designs and prefers 24 typical evaluation indexes by two degrees. In the component element of evaluation system, it designs the comprehensive evaluation system of integrated ecological industrial park and interpretative relevant indexes by the designs of hierarchical structure and specific index. In the component element of evaluation standard, it designs five degrees evaluation standards including "very good?good?normal?pass and failure", and confirms objective degree standard index. In the link of weighing the targets, the criterion layer is compared with the goal layer, and the design is ensured by applying the layer analysis method from the subjective weight ensuring methods; the target layer is compared with the goal layer, and the design is ensured by using the changing coefficient method from the objective weigh ensuring method. In the link of detailed evaluation method, the design uses the multi-class obscure comprehensive evaluation method from the systematic project comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate comprehensively. The design of current construction situation for the integrated ecological industrial parks offers the approach preparation to the evaluating research of the parks' current construction situation.(3) Design for the developing trend prediction path of integrated ecological industrial park. It clears the purposes?problems that should be attentive?principles and thoughts of the design for prediction path, according to analyze the objective demands. In the selection of specific method, according to select contrastively and consider the factor of prediction, it designs to predict scientifically the developing trend of the park by selecting the grey systematical prediction method in the quantitative trend prediction method. It interpretates the theory and connotation of the selective grey systematical prediction method, designs the component element of the specific prediction. In the component element of data pre-inspection and process, it designs and adopts three modes of counting zero and equal time-distance inspection?degree-contrasting inspection?smooth contrast and second smooth condition inspection, pre-inspect the data serial combined; designs and adopts logarithmic transformation, etc. six types of methods deal with the data serial which does not reach the requirement of pre-inspection again. In the component element of prediction model, it designs scientifically the process of grey prediction simple model. In the component element of prediction model check, it designs and adopts three modes to check the accuracy of the prediction model combined, such as:residual check?correlation degree check and post-differencing check. In the component element of the supplementary of prediction model, it supplements the prediction model to improve the accuracy of prediction model by designing equal-dimension grey figure filled model and residual correction model. The design for the prediction path of the developing trend about integrated ecological industrial park prepares methods for the research about the developing trend prediction of integrated ecological industrial park.(4) Study about the current construction situation of Harbor Bridge Ecological Industrial Park, in Yongchuan, Chongqing. This essay takes Harbor Bridge Ecological Industrial Park as testing park and research example. Besides, this essay gives an introduction about the natural environment, economic social environment and ecological environment of this testing park, and adopts its evaluation index data from 2010 to 2014.Also, combined with time order data, this paper devises and takes layer analysis method, mixed variation coefficient method, calculating scientifically the concrete target weight of criteria layer and target layer. The results are reasonable. Finally, by using the counting procedure of multi-class obscure comprehensive evaluation method and ensuring the subordination of the fixed nature and fixed quantity, building up the obscure comprehensive evaluation pattern is a kind comprehensive evaluation of class-a and class-b obscurity for the current construction situation of Harbor Bridge Ecological Industrial Park, Yongchuan in Chongqing, in 2014. The final evaluation result shows:the total construction level of Harbor Bridge Ecological Industrial Park 2014 is in the transition state from the "pass" level to "normal" level. The last evaluation result is basically correlated with the current development situation, and explains the science and objectivity of the evaluation route design.(5) Empirical studies about the developing trend of Harbor Bridge Ecological Industrial Park in Yongchuan, Chongqing. This thesis selects Harbor Bridge Ecological Industrial Park in Yongchuan, Chongqing as the park for testing and study case. It analyzes twenty-four index developing trend of the park from 2010-2014, the result shows:although parts of the indexes grows slowly, the general development of the park is becoming steady. It predicts the developing trend of the park from 2015-2017 by applying the designed combining prediction method. The prediction result shows:some indexes reach the best standard, part of the indexes grow steadily, the indexes of the park is to be good obviously. By applying prediction indexes to do multi-grade vague comprehensive evaluation, the final prediction result evaluation shows:the development of Harbor Bridge Ecological Industrial Park in Yongchuan, Chongqing in 2015 is in "normal" level. It is in the transition from "normal" level to "good" level, reach to "good" level in 2016. It is in the transition from "good" level to "very good" level, and the trend of "very good" level is obvious in 2017. According to the problems reflecting from prediction result evaluation, it proposes eight specific measures for the park, such as:strengthening planning leading?vigorously attracting investments and introducing capitals?building ecological network?insisting on the basis of ecology?emphasizing creative driving?stressing scientific management?enlarge assorted service and reinforcing propaganda education. The final prediction result basically complies with the current developing potential of the park; it illustrates the rationality and feasibility of the prediction path design.