Measurement And Determinants Of Rural Poverty In China

China has reduced poverty significantly since embarking on Opening and Reform policy.Precise poverty reduction is in urgent need as the poverty population keeps declining.The key issue in further poverty reduction is precisely identifying and targeting those who can be supported through available channels steadily.There is a gap between needs and outputs from research in poverty that leads to a situation where the exact status of the population affected by poverty is not clear,the support policy is not efficient and it cannot reach the people who are poor.This dissertation provides a comprehensive poverty profile with three poverty measurements and provide cross poverty identification.With logit model and multi logit model,this dissertation analyzes the factors under each measurement and explains the poverty dynamics.The key innovations in this research include: first the comparison of income poverty,expenditure poverty and dimensional poverty with panel data can indicate the poverty incidence,poverty gaps and poverty structure which comprehensive poverty profile and extend the static poverty to dynamic poverty analysis.Second,the food security and social capital indicators added in the multidimensional poverty indicator system proves to be an effective supplement of the UNDP multidimensional poverty index after the robust test.And the multidimensional poverty indicator system will be a good reference for the precise poverty identification and targeting and provide an angle for the new poverty line in post-2020 era.Third,the multi logit model which analyzes and compares the factors of poverty group,move out poverty group and move in poverty group provide policy recommendation proof which may correct bias with income poverty measurement.This dissertation uses a two wave's survey data,covering multidimensional data and income and expenditure data,carried out between 2010 and 2012 from six poverty counties: Zhen'an and Luonan in Shaanxi Province,Wuding and Huize in Yunnan Province,Zheng'an and Pan County in Guizhou Province.The main findings are:There is variation in data on poverty between the two surveys which then provide different poverty profiles.The poverty headcount ratio was the highest with income poverty which is 28.51% in 2012,20.83% with multidimensional poverty measurement and the lowest with expenditure poverty measurement 7.5% in 2012.Labor employment income contributes most for the income growth.The labor income of rural poor is significantly less than non-poor households.Major income resources for rural poor households are from planting and livestock sector.High proportion of food expenditure squeezed out other expenditures.With multidimensional poverty measurement,as poverty thresholds increased,the contribution of food security,credit and education dimension increased which indicate that for multidimensional poverty people,food security,credit and education is more deprived compared with living conditions and health.This also proves that it's an improvement for the UNDP multidimensional poverty index.The poor households identified with each survey differ.Multidimensional poverty can identify the highest proportion of poverty households under all measurements while income identified the lowest.Determinants make different impact under each measurement.Age of household head brings same impact to income poverty,expenditure poverty and multidimensional poverty.Factors bring in similar impact on income poverty and expenditure poverty.As to poverty dynamics,income poverty fluctuate the most,followed with multidimensional poverty and expenditure income is comparably the most stable.40.3% of households changed poverty status with income poverty measurement,while the proportion is 31.65% for multidimensional poverty and 14.3% for expenditure poverty.Dependency ratio,health,training and shocks are the major factors influencing the changes of poverty status.According to the conclusions,some policy recommendations are provided: First,in poverty measurement and identification,policy makers should be well aware of the difference among measurements.Multidimensional poverty measurement should be a good option in precise poverty identification and targeting instead of the current income poverty.In implementing multidimensional poverty reduction,there should be different focus for the central government,provincial government,county level,township and community leadship.To increase the labor employment income is the key to increase rural poor's income which requires more training and capacity building investment.Government can provide food subsidy for rural poor especially nutritious food to improve the nutrition status,and food security and nutrition should be included in the poverty reduction goal.Investment in social safety net especially health care and medical insurance is in urgent need for rural poor.