Study On The Paths Of Industrial Pollution Prevention During China's Industrialization Process

China entered into heavy chemical industry stage at the beginning of the 21 st century,industrial pollutants increased sharply with some heavy polluted industries rapid developing since then.Industry had been the main source of pollutants,the industrial pollution was becoming serious increasingly,and the phenomenon of "governance failure" began to emerge.In the 1990 s,the pollution prevention strategy became prevalent in Europe and the United States,and had obtained remarkable achievement.China needs to change the strategy of pollution prevention & control and the pollution prevention must be put on more important position.Logistical and mathematical analysis on industrial pollution prevention from the microscopic level,meso-level and macroscopic level shows that there are four basic industrial pollution prevention paths:scale control path,technological progress path,structural optimization path and institutional innovation path.The previous three paths is the direct path of industrial pollution prevention,and institutional innovation path is fundamental indirect path which have a significant impact on the three direct paths of industrial pollution prevention.The absolute effect(reducing output of industrial pollutants)from 2003 to 2014 of China's three direct path of industrial pollution prevention is analyzed respectively through the counterfactual reasoning method.It is found that 94.94% of industrial SO2,98.81% of industrial dust and 99.27% of industrial solid waste caused by expanding of industrial production scale.Scale control path had reduced 30.78 million tons of SO2,105.26 million tons of industrial dust and 964.23 million tons of industrial solid waste.Technological advance of industrial pollution prevention had reduced 532.92 million tons of industrial SO2,6.31428 billion tons of industrial dust and 17.83261 billion tons of industrial solid waste.The effect of industrial pollution prevention of industrial structure optimization path was not significant subject to the limit of the industrialization process.China entered into intermediate stage of industrialization in 2004 with rapid industrializing over past ten years,and closed to later stage of industrialization in 2014 when comprehensive index of industrialization level arrived 0.68.The effect of All paths of industrial pollution prevention in the mid-term stage of industrialization exist significant differences:(1)from the point of single protective effect,the trend of relative prevention effect of scale control path and structure optimization path is consistent,but the relative prevention effect(RPE)and tendency of technological advance path is obvious difference in various industrial pollutants——RPE decreasing continuously in industrial dust,fluctuating horizontally in industrial so2,and rising steadily in industrial solid waste;(2)from the point of integrated prevention effect,contribution rate of comprehensive prevention & control effect(CACPE)of scale control path steady at 0~5.77%,CACPE of technical progress path fluctuating horizontally around 70% in the mid-term stage of industrialization,CACPE of structure optimization path declines sharply at end of the initial-term stage of industrialization,and come from negative to positive at end of t the mid-term stage of industrialization with rapid increasing;(3)in the process of industrialization more than ten years,technological progress path is the main force of industrial pollution prevention and control in China,industrial pollution prevention effect of scale control path and structural optimization path is not significant,but industrial pollution prevention effect of structural optimization may be rise quickly in the later-stage of industrialization.Institutions is essential factor which influence or determine the effect of all direct industrial pollution prevention paths.The promoting effect of environmental regulation to the direct industrial pollution prevention paths depend on its authority,incentive,guidance,and implementation mechanism.It is neccesary to strengthen institutional innovation to promote industrial pollution prevention.