Research On The Construction Of Six-level Accident Analysis Model Based On System Dynamics

In the process of human survival and development,accidents always accompany the human process.Security has become an eternal topic in human history.How to analyze the previous accident and summarize the rule of accident occurrence is of great significance for accident prevention.Through the review,it is found that there are dozens of accident analysis models,each of which has its different application scope,considering that accidents are composed of various factors,based on the original accident analysis model,this paper divides the causes of accidents into six hierarchy,and establishes the sub-factors of each level and summarizes them into tables,and establishes the six-hierarchy accident analysis model to provide reference for accident analysis and accident prevention.In this paper,based on the point of system and theory,based on 67 cases of typical coal mine,construction and chemical accident cases for investigation and analysis since 2009,this paper studies its official accident investigation report,combining with the results of relevant accident analysis model,summarizes the accident cause factor level and accident cases related to the level of scale,build distinct six hierarchy of accident analysis model.Then,on the basis of the system dynamics principle,the investment and score of safety standardization construction of a branch company of a central enterprise were taken as the basic data to establish a hierarchical power transmission analysis model,and the numerical simulation was carried out to study its propagation rule.Finally,a six-hierarchy accident analysis model is adopted to analyze the three typical cases in recent years,to determine the cause factors of each level and the safety control structure of the accident,and to give the lessons and inspiration of the accident.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The proportion of accident causes at all levels was calculated.The occurrence of accidents is determined by the comprehensive multi-level factors of the system,which are correlated and interact with each other to jointly cause accidents.Through investigation and analysis of 67 typical cases,61 accidents related to human unsafe actions,equipment failures and environment were determined,accounting for 91%of the total accidents.There were 63 accidents related to operation monitoring,accounting for 94%of the total accidents.There were 66 accidents related to safety management,accounting for 98%of the total accidents.There were 66 accidents related to corporate culture,accounting for 98%of the total.There were 46 accidents related to industrial regulation,accounting for 66%of total accidents.There were two accidents related to laws and regulations,accounting for 3%of the total.According to the statistical data,the first five hierarchy contribute a lot to the accident,but it does not mean that laws and regulations are not important to the safety of production.This is because the statistical data are based on the official accident investigation report,and most of the reports have not covered the level of imperfect laws and regulations.(2)Establish a six-hierarchy accident analysis model.Based on the investigation and analysis of 67 accidents,as well as the existing accident analysis model,a six-level accident sub-model is established,which includes the accident cause factors at the risk monitoring level,operation control level,safety management level,corporate culture level,industry supervision level and legal and regulatory level.The risk monitoring layer,operation control layer,safety management layer and culture layer belong to enterprise level,namely technical system.The industry regulatory layer and the legal and legal layer belong to the social level,namely the social system.The correlation between the hierarchical factors of the six hierarchy of accident model was analyzed.Based on the systematic view,the correlation between the hierarchical factors was analyzed to determine that the accident was not determined by a single factor,and the combined action of the hierarchical factors eventually led to the accident.(3)The sub-causes of factors at all levels were analyzed.Six levels of accident analysis model of each level factors contains several sub-level factors,through the analysis,to determine the risk monitoring layer includes three second-level child elements:individual behavior,tools and equipment and the environment,each secondary sub-factors all contains a number of tertiary-factors,individual behavior includes 4 categories of tertiary-factors and 29 class four-factors,tools and equipment includes 2 categories of tertiary-factors and 17 class four-factors,environment includes 2 categories of tertiary-factors and 23 class four-factors.The job control layer includes 2 sub-factors:personal factors and work factors,in which personal factors are divided into 5 categories of tertiary sub-factors and 49 categories of sub-factors,and the work environment includes 7 categories of tertiary sub-factors and 61 categories of sub-factors.The safety management includes 5 categories of secondary sub-factors and 15 categories of tertiary sub-factors.The company culture layer includes 6 categories of secondary sub-factors and 25 categories of tertiary sub-factors.The industry regulatory layer includes 2 categories of secondary sub-factors and 7 categories of tertiary sub-factors.The level of laws and regulations includes 1 class of secondary sub-factors and 3 class of tertiary sub-factors.(4)The safety control structure of the six-level accident analysis model is discussed.Based on the point of system,establishes the hierarchy between the factors of communication between the control structure and control structure and feedback circuit,through the control structure to meet safety management,safety management is not in order to prevent the component failure and accidents,but the safety control structure of a system,component of system security constraints,when the system changes over time and security constraints according to feedback information timely changes,to ensure the safe and stable operation of the system.Therefore,the purpose of effective security management is to ensure the security constraints while keeping the system as flexible as possible,so that the system performance is constantly improved.(5)The relative weight of each level of the six-level accident analysis model is determined.The relative weight of each level of factors in the six-level accident analysis model was calculated through the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and entropy weight method,and the weight of risk monitoring,operation control,safety management,company culture,industry regulation,and laws and regulations in the six-hierarchy accident analysis model was finally determined to be 0.29,0.22,0.15,0.21,0.10,0.04.(6)Use system dynamics to analyze the dynamic propagation rules of the hierarchy.Safety accident is a typical high-order nonlinear dynamic system with feedback characteristics.Based on this,using the system dynamics principle,establishes the hierarchy model of power transmission system,in a safe investment as the breakthrough point,using a state branch of safety standardization scored with hierarchical dynamic model of system dynamics simulation,data show that within the scope of the system definition,increase scored can improve the safety standardization,which was in line with the actual situation.By adjusting the total amount of safety input and changing the proportion of safety input at all levels on the premise of constant safety input,and simulating the changing trend of system safety level,it provides theoretical basis for enterprises to reasonably arrange safety input.(7)Analyze typical accident cases by using the six-level accident model.The newly established six-level accident analysis model is used to analyze the three major accidents in recent years:"The '11·24' cooling tower construction platform collapse accident of FengCheng power plant in JiangXi province”," Tianjin port '8 12' ruihai dangerous goods warehouse particularly serious fire explosion accident"and "Inner Mongolia BaoMa mining '12·3' particularly significant gas explosion accident”respectively in the analysis of the accident,can check through,according to a report of accident investigation of the all levels determine the cause of the accident accident cause factor,establish safety control structure of accident,the accident cause of regulators and the industry factors from the recognition,finally combined with six levels of accident analysis model of accident lessons and inspiration.The facts show that accidents occur under the combined action of various factors.In the process of accident prevention,targeted measures should be proposed for each level,and partial waste may cause irreparable consequences.