Research On Urban Unemployment Risk Warning Based On Employment Climate Monitoring

Employment climate monitoring at national level and urban unemployment risk warning at district level are common problems faced by almost all countries of market economy.There is no universal pattern to promote employment.Instead,every country should absorb and explore appropriate employment patterns and employment development strategies according to their actual employment situation.Since the reform and opening up,the employment climate in Chinese large and medium-sized cities has shown a certain level of fluctuation and unemployment problems tend to show up under the influence of economic development,industrial structure adjustment,employment policy changes and other factors,resulting in social conflicts intensification,which largely affects the process of Chinese economic reform and social stability.It is an urgent researching subject to assess and monitor fluctuation of Chinese employment situation correctly and predict Chinese large and medium-sized cities unemployment risk scientifically.This dissertation applies principal component analysis(CPA),panel data analysis model,three-dimensional risk positioning of unemployment and other research methods to build unemployment monitoring indicators and unemployment risk warning system based on employment climate monitoring of Chinese large and medium-sized cities,and to design employment promotion policies of large and medium-sized cities in the basis of building employment climate monitoring index.Therefore,this dissertation is of great practical significance and research value for solving Chinese large and medium-sized cities unemployment problem and promoting employment,and further maintaining sustainable economic and social development as well as social stability.This dissertation studies the subject with the thinking route like this: conduction mechanism?employment climate monitoring index design?employmentmonitoring index design of large and medium-sized cities?unemployment risk warning system build of large and medium-sized cities?empirical analysis?policy option,and we would focus on the following six main aspects.First of all,the conduction mechanism of employment climate fluctuation would be revealed.Weanalyzedthe basic principles of the employment climate fluctuationsfrom an economic perspective,and identified three factorsaffectingemployment climate fluctuations from three aspects like economic factors,labor employment and employment policy.In addition,we exploredconduction path about how various risk factors affect employment fluctuation,and find out conduction chain of employment fluctuation,so as to reveal the conduction mechanism of employment climate fluctuation.Secondly,wedesigned the index model of employment climate monitoring at national level.We obtained leading index,coincident index and lagging index of employment climate monitoring by using synthesis index method then designed employment climate monitoring index model at national level from the economic climate,employment climate and employment policy climate point of view respectively to monitor economic level and volatility of the national employment situation.Thirdly,we built employment monitoring index model of large and medium-sized cities at district level.We used principal component analysis and efficacy coefficient method to get economic situation monitoring index,employment monitoring index and employment policy of large and medium-sized cities,and then we applied panel data method to monitoring the employment situation of large and medium-sized cities dynamically at district level.Fourthly,we built three-dimensional unemployment risk warning model of Chinese large and medium-sized cities based on employment climate monitoring.We analyzed the main source of large and medium-sized cities unemployment risk from three levels like economic increase,employment structure and employment institution policy,and built unemployment risk warning index of large and medium-sized cities by combining employment climate index and large and medium-sized cities employment monitoring index.Then,we located the unemployment risk earning of Chinese large and medium-sized cities based on three-dimensional cube model and Radar Chart.Fourthly,empirical study of Chinese urban unemployment risk warning would be processed.Choosing 10 cities including Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou,Chengdu and Wuhan as research objects,initially selected indicators would be pre-processed with factor analysis method,and variables with insignificant difference in average would then be deleted.With the fundamental,the unemployment risk condition ofdifferent cities would be empirically analyzed with panel data method of fixed performance.Fifthly,empirical study of Chinese large and medium-sized cities unemployment risk warning would be processed.Choosing 10 cities including Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou,Chengdu and Wuhan as research objects,initially deleted employment climate monitoring index at national level and district level respectively.With the fundamental,the three-dimensional unemployment risk warning model of Chinese large and medium-sized cities then be built.Lastly,the Chinese large and medium-sized cities employment policy based on unemployment risk warning would be raised,and then we analyzed policy measures government can take to response unemployment risk of large and medium-sized cities from three levels like economic increase,labor employment and employment policy.This dissertation attempts to make some outbreaks from the following three aspects.The first aspect discusses the conduction mechanism of employment climate fluctuation based on Okun's law and Philips curve.The conduction route of economic increase,inflation and investment for employment climate would be explored based on Okun's law and Philips curve,the conduction route of labor demand structure of industrial structure,district structure,economic system reform and technical improvement as well as labor supplement structure like labor physical feature,education level and employment opinion for employment climate would be analyzed based on labor supplement and demand structure,and the conduction route of the perfection level of labor guarantee,unemployment insurance and employment service policy on employment climate would be analyzed based on employment policy.The second aspect designs index model of employment climate monitoring.We would analyze the impact of macro economic condition,labor market condition and employment guarantee policy on urban unemployment risk,and select employment climate indicators from the three dimensions.In addition,synthesis index method would be adopted to determine employment climate leading index,coincident index and lagging index to intuitively analyse overall employment situation of China,which would be applied to build employment climate merging index from economic increase,labor employment and employment security,so as to monitor Chineseemployment climate fluctuation condition accurately and reasonably.The third aspect builds large and medium-sized cities unemployment risk warning model based on employment climate monitoring.Combined employment climate monitoring at national level and employment situation monitoring of large and medium-sized cities at district level,we build unemployment risk earning model of large and medium-sized cities from three dimensions like economic situation,labor employment and employment policy,and corresponding give targeted policy options on the perspective of government.