| After many years of rapid development of agriculture modernization technology,and the steady progress of urbanization,along with the arrival of an aging society at the same time,the farmland circulation scale is growing at an alarming rate In China.Efficient agricultural land circulation has made an important contribution to agricultural economic growth and farmers' income.However,while agricultural land circulation brings huge benefits to the countryside,there are still negative conditions in some parts of China.For instance,the low agricultural land resource allocation efficiency,the backward development of agricultural land circulation market,the failure of the price function of the farmland circulation market and the frequently seen circulation disputes.First,the upgrade from agricultural scale operation to scale operation of agriculture,and the reasonable allocation of labor force and land operation scale are the core and urgent challenges of agricultural development.Second,the circulation price of rural land contract management rights is obviously different.The overall price is low,but there are some rich rural areas where land circulation prices are rising too fast and overpriced.Finally,the agricultural land circulation period is related to the long-term and stable input of farmers into agricultural production or non-agricultural employment,which does not seem to attract the attention of all sectors of society.Therefore,this paper studies the influence factors of farmland circulation scale,circulation price and circulation period,and their interactions.This paper also emphasizes the importance of farmland circulation period to agricultural land circulation,with a view to providing suggestions for future land policy development.This paper selects the data of peasant households in the National Agricultural and Rural Development Research Institute of China Agricultural University from 2014 to 2017.The Three-Stage Least Squares(3SLS)model estimation method is used.From the perspective of agricultural land circulation and agricultural land circulation,the main influencing factors of the scale of farmland circulation,circulation price and circulation period are studied.According to the research results,this paper discusses the interaction among the three factors above.Finally,this paper proves that the analysis framework of farmland conversion period into the system has a great influence on the overall estimate of the results,through the economic significance of the model test,system test fitting effect,instrumental variable inspection method.The results show the following.First,the human capital and family economic situation of farmers have a significant impact on the circulation scale and the circulation period of farmland.The younger the head of the household,the more technical capacity of the farmer's agricultural production,and the more abundant the family agricultural labor force or the number of large agricultural machinery and tools,then the more favorable for the farmers to expand the scale of agricultural operation,and it is also a favorable condition if the farmers have the status of cadres;on the contrary,the lack of agricultural labor in the family or the farmers who do not have access to agricultural production services are more inclined to turn out farmland in large areas;farmers who own agricultural income and buy agricultural unemployment insurance are significantly more inclined to long-term circulation of farmland.Second,the agricultural land endowment is the decisive factor that directly affects the circulation price of farmland.The agricultural land that can be replanted and the land with high level of flatness not only lead to the increase of the circulation price,but also has a certain influence on the circulation period of farmland.Third,the signing of a complete circulation contract and the circulation of government approval procedures are the legal and policy guarantee for farmers to carry out long-term circulation.Fourth,the influence of regional difference cannot be ignored either,and the rural land circulation price is significantly higher in the suburb or rural areas with better economic development.Finally,we think that,farmland flatness has a significant influence on the scale of farmland circulation,circulation price and circulation period,and the higher the circulation price,the more rational the circulation scale will be and the smaller it will be.And the farmers who circulation the land out will pay extra attention to the importance of the circulation deadline.It is only in the face of higher agricultural land circulation prices that the long-term large-scale circulation of agricultural land will be selected.The last part of the paper puts forward the policy suggestions on how to realize the long-term stable circulation and operation of agricultural land in China.First,a set of agricultural land swaps and replacement compensation methods is concluded,and under the conditions of land confirmation registration and agricultural land grading evaluation,the study carries out the pilot work of agricultural land adjustment mechanism in some areas,while exploring a new path for steady and healthy development in a moderate scale.Second,continue to strengthen infrastructure investment in rural agriculture and raise the level of agricultural socialization service and production and operation services to lay a solid foundation for the sustainable development of moderate scale operation.Third,establish a scientific agricultural land circulation market price evaluation mechanism,regulate farmland circulation market procedures,reduce transaction costs,reduce transaction risks,and help achieve a long-term stable and moderate scale operation.Fourth,attach great importance to policy support and technical guidance for returning to the rural community.These farmers,who have gone into business and joined the army,are the backbone of future agricultural modernization.Fifth,building a system of farmland performance insurance,proceed the the risk prevention of farmland circulation or agricultural operation,seeking to limit any losses. |
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