An Empirical Study On The Co-evolution Of China's Manufacturing Industry And Productive Service Industry

The manufacturing industry is an important driving force to promote the growth of China's real economy,and its level of development can embody the comprehensive strength of the whole country to a certain extent.At present,the development of manufacturing industry still faces many realistic problems,such as low value-added products,weak innovation ability,high talent shortage.Whereas the productive service industry can effectively reduce the manufacturing transaction cost,enhance the production efficiency and strengthen the core of the production value chain,which is the effective support of the manufacturing transformation and upgrading.At the same time,as an independent development of the internal production sector from the manufacturing industry,the rapid development of manufacturing has provided a huge market space for the productive service industry.Therefore,from the perspective of industrial synergy evolution,the paper explores the rules and characteristics of the interactive evolution between manufacturing and producer services,which provides a unique perspective for revealing the complex evolution process between the two industries.It is conducive to the in-depth analysis of the mechanism problems in the process of coordinated development between manufacturing and producer services.The interaction between manufacturing and producer services has aroused great concern of scholars from international and domestic.With regard to the relationship between manufacturing industry and producer services,scholars have made a great deal of discussion and analysis on the relationship between them,but the empirical research on the interaction between manufacturing and producer services still has some limitations which is mainly embodied in the following three aspects.Firstly,in the early stage research methods mainly take the regression statistical analysis,the input-output method.And then the diversified research methods are introduced,such as social network analysis,technology gap method,DEA analysis method,etc.Secondly,in the data source aspect the input-output analysis method is using the research data obtained from the input-output table,and the input-output table has a long period and a certain lag which is not timely to respond to the dynamic change and evolution of the industry.At the same time,most econometric analysis methods use industrial added value or single statistical data for regression analysis which lacking a large number of data as a support,failed to reveal the relationship between industry and development law.Thirdly,the existing research results are lack of the degree calculation of synergy between China's producer services industry and manufacturing industries in different sectors.The only quantitative research is mainly focus on the measurement and comparison of the interaction between manufacturing and producer services,lacking further analysis and exploration of the research results.Based on the research basis of predecessors,this paper focuses on the following four points of industrial synergy research:1.On the basis of combining symbiosis and environmental influence,the paper constructs logistic model to explores the development trend of collaborative evolution between manufacturing industry and productive services,and reveal the intrinsic mechanism of synergy evolution between manufacturing industry and productive services.The results show that the relationship between manufacturing industry and productive services is changing from parasitic mode to mutualism mode,and the two industries are in the growth period of symbiotic relationship,but the symbiosis relation is not stable.Based on the simulation and assignment of the symbiotic action coefficient?₂₁,?₁₂,it is found that the symmetric reciprocal symbiosis mode is the best model to promote the effective cooperative development between manufacturing and productive services.2.The paper uses the grey system model GM?1,N?to measure the development degree of cooperative evolution between manufacturing and productive services,and to grasp the changing trend of synergetic development level between two industries from an objective angle.The results show that the overall cooperative evolution between manufacturing industry and producer services is developing gradually,and the degree of synergy between manufacturing industry and producer service industry is different at this stage.Some industries have infiltrated into both sides of the industry and showing a strong industry synergy.Some industries in the process of integration and upgrading of the two industries still failed to play an effective role,resulting in low synergy between industries and pending further promotion and development.3.The Malmquist index model is proposed to measure the production efficiency level of each sub industry in the manufacturing sector.And the panel threshold regression model is adopted to test whether the non-linear threshold effect of the two industries'synergistic development on manufacturing productivity is due to the heterogeneity of manufacturing industry scale,development level and innovation ability.The results show that the favorable synergy between manufacturing industry and productive services has a positive effect on the improvement of manufacturing efficiency during 2006-2015.Among them,with the gradual expansion of the manufacturing industry,the synergy effect on the manufacturing efficiency of the industry presents a weak-strong-weak"S"type trend.When the development level of manufacturing industry is low,the effect of industrial synergy on manufacturing efficiency is weaker,and once the development level of manufacturing industry crosses the threshold,its promotion effect has a significant promotion.For the manufacturing industry with different stages of innovation capability,the effect of synergy between industries on manufacturing efficiency has the non-linear characteristics from weak to strong.4.To explore the influencing factors in the process of collaborative evolution between manufacturing and producer services,and to find the key driving factors that can promote the development of two industries.The results show that the development level variable of producer service industry has the strongest effect on the synergy development of the two industries,the second is the efficiency variable of productive service industry.And though the manufacturing technology innovation and manufacturing industry scale variable can be tested by significance,but it has a relatively weak effect on the development of synergetic evolution of manufacturing and productive service industry.However,the latent variables of environmental regulation did not pass the significance test,which shows that the strict environmental regulation measures will not negatively affect the synergy development of manufacturing and productive services.