Research On The Devolopment Of China's Overseas Farmland Investment Based On Food Security

With the rapid development of China's economy and the continuous increase of population,the domestic food demand is growing rigidly.While the factors such as the reduction in the quantity and quality of cultivated land and water shortages have increasingly constrained domestic food production.China's food supply and demand will be in a tight balance for a long time,and domestic food security will face severe challenges.Under the background of China's implementation of the ‘going global' strategy and the comprehensive construction of ‘one belt and one road',the effective use of overseas farmland resources to alleviate the pressure of domestic food supply has become an important way to ensure food security in the period of agricultural transformation in China.However,due to the lack of unified planning and theoretical guidance,the disorderly development of China's overseas arable land investment driven by different investment motives makes it difficult to form a synergistic force to improve the domestic food security.So this study adopts a combination of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis.And based on the study of the dynamic mechanism,influencing factors and development trends of China's overseas farmland investment,this paper proposes an optimized path for overseas farmland investment with the goal of ensuring China's food security.To provide a theoretical basis for the country to formulate a food security strategy based on overseas farmland investment and guide enterprises to go abroad.The main research contents and conclusions include:(1)This paper explores the basic law of the formation and evolution of China's overseas arable land investment from the time and space dimensions,and the LMDI model was constructed to analyze the dynamic mechanism of China's overseas farmland investment growth.On the time scale,China's overseas farmland investment has gone through three stages: foreign agricultural assistance,agricultural cooperative and ‘going out'.There are significant differences in the number of investment entities and investments at different stages.On the spatial scale,China's overseas farmland investment located in Southeast Asia and other surrounding areas at first,then gradually expands to the other areas,and there is no significant agglomeration effect.The efficiency of investment has gradually become a hindrance factor for the development of China's overseas farmland investment.The rapid economic development and the increase of investment intensity are the main driving forces for the rapid growth of China's overseas farmland investment.The growth of population has little effect on the promotion of China's overseas farmland investment.(2)Based on the analysis of the characteristics of China's overseas farmland investment areas and entities,this paper analyses the influencing factors of China's overseas farmland investment from the perspectives of resources,market and system,and constructs a gravitational model incorporating stochastic utility model for empirical analysis.The results show that there are similarities between China's overseas farmland investment and foreign direct investment.Trade distance has a significant negative impact on China's overseas arable land investment.Regional trade agreements have a greater role in promoting Chinese overseas farmland investment.At the same time,China's overseas farmland investment also shows its unique features.It tends to choose countries with underdeveloped market economy and low tax rate.And the host country's corruption control system,property rights security and investment convenience have a significant impact on China's overseas farmland investment.Agricultural resources in host countries are attractive to China's overseas farmland investment.On the whole,China's overseas farmland investment is a kind of market-seeking foreign direct investment for the purpose of economic interests(3)Based on the analysis of the domestic and international situations,various methods are used to predict the future development scale of China's overseas farmland investment,and the concept of virtual farmland is introduced to measure the potential gap of China's farmland resources.It is concluded that the current domestic and international food security situation,macro-policy and other factors provide unprecedented opportunities for the development of overseas farmland investment.It is estimated that the investment scale of overseas farmland in China will reach 6.1-7.1 million hectares in 2020 and 10.73-14.29 million hectares in 2025.In 2015,China's net import of virtual farmland was 35.45 million hectares.It is estimated that China's net import of virtual farmland will reach 53 million hectares by 2020,and it will probably reach 80 million hectares by 2025.It is concluded that the development of China's overseas farmland investment in the future can not meet China's potential demand for farmland.It is necessary to optimize the development path of overseas farmland investment to promote the development of China's overseas farmland investment in order to improve China's food security.(4)From the perspective of food security,this paper analyses the structural problems existing in China's overseas farmland investment.Through the macro-structure at the national level and the micro-structure at the enterprise level,it explores the optimal path of China's overseas farmland investment,and provides a theoretical basis for using overseas farmland investment to guarantee China's food security.At the micro level,this paper uses Logit model to test the selectivity differences between state-owned enterprises and private enterprises in the implementation of overseas farmland investment,and puts forward the development path of state-owned enterprises and private enterprises based on food security.A multi-attribute decision-making model of overseas farmland investment project based on the prospect theory is established.The evaluation index system is constructed from four aspects: resource factor,market factor,social factor and risk factor.At the same time,the risk preference of state-owned enterprises and private enterprises will be introduced,and finally the prospect value of host countries under different risk preference conditions is calculated.Then it can provide a scientific decision-making method for different types of enterprises.At the macro level,this paper conducts a questionnaire survey on the effect of policy support system from six aspects: investment management policy,financial support policy,financial support policy,insurance support policy and tax support policy.The results show that the policy support system of China's overseas farmland investment has a general effect on the support of enterprises,among which the financial support policy and financial support policy have a poor effect on the support of enterprises,and the investment management policy and tax support policy have been affirmed by enterprises.On this basis,combined with the actual situation of China and the reference to the typical national policy system of overseas farmland investment,the optimal path of China's overseas farmland investment is proposed.