| Energy is the backbone of modern life which is highly related to national security, economic growth, and environmental protection. For Taiwan, a region having limited conventional energy resources but constructing economies and societies with high energy intensity, energy became the throat of national security and development. This dissertation explores energy solutions for Taiwan by constructing a sustainable and comprehensive energy planning framework (SCENE) and by simulating alternative energy pathways on the horizon to 2030. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) is used as a platform for the energy simulation. The study models three scenarios based on the E4 (energy -- environment -- economic -- equity) perspectives. Three scenarios refer to the business-as-usual scenario (BAU), the government target scenario (GOV), and the renewable and efficiency scenario (REEE). The simulation results indicate that the most promising scenario for Taiwan is the REEE scenario, which aims to save 48.7 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) of final energy consumption. It avoids USD 11.1 billion on electricity expenditure in final demand sectors. In addition, the cost of the REEE path is the lowest among all scenarios before 2020 in the electricity generation sector. In terms of global warming potential (GWP), the REEE scenario could reduce 35 percent of the GWP in the demand sectors, the lowest greenhouse gases emission in relation to all other scenarios. Based on lowest energy consumption, competitive cost, and least harm to the environment, the REEE scenario is the best option to achieve intergenerational equity. This dissertation proposes that promoting energy efficiency and utilizing renewable energy is the best strategy for Taiwan. For efficiency improvement, great energy saving potentials do exist in Taiwan so that Taiwan needs more ambitious targets, policies, and implementation mechanisms for energy efficiency enhancement to slow down and decrease total final energy demand in the long term. In terms of adopting renewable energy, this dissertation suggests increasing the proportion of renewable electricity to 30 percent by 2030, using proven and market competitive renewable technologies to harvest Taiwan's abundant renewable potential. To achieve this goal, it is crucial to construct stable funding sources and promote the transparency, longevity, and certainty of policies. |
