Scenario Analysis And Countermeasures Research On Group Emergency Events

At present, our country is in the key stage of reform and development, promote the realization of social sustainable development strategic goal and satisfy the masses of the people's growing material, spiritual and cultural life needs is the starting point of all the work, develops well. However, change and development are inevitable rights and interests of the redistribution and adjustment, leading to social differentiation, flow speed, causing a series of mass incidents. The group events are induced by the internal contradictions among the people, stakeholders, has the sense of common people, take public demonstrations, blockade of Party and government organs, above the mob and other illegal and aggressive behavior, beyond the normal channels to express political system, group benefit demand and general term for a variety of events have a significant negative impact on society the stability, the order of the. At present, the unexpected events of the group broke out frequently, at all levels of our government especially the grass-roots government, the service has posed a severe challenge, once the improper disposal, often can cause serious harm to the society, to reduce the government's credibility". From the causes, the group events disposal process and results, sudden group conflicts are internal contradictions among the people is accumulated to a certain extent, in the outside world under the guidance of the incentives and the occurrence of the event, often have a fierce confrontation, the escalation of the conflict is fast, strong social characteristics, it puts forward a higher request to the emergency response capability at all levels of government.Group events belonging to the cluster behavior is typical, spontaneous public in the interaction, not stable, no organization, a kind of behavior, because of some common influence or effect phenomenon. This paper tries to explore the use of scenario evolution law of the unexpected events of the group analysis, analysis of mass emergency response mechanism, and the "Jiangsu Qidong" the empirical analysis. First of all, the research background and the research significance of the unexpected events of the group, the research method and technology route are introduced and the research results at home and abroad on the group events, scenario analysis summarizes, on this basis, construct the mass emergency scenario model, focusing on the preparation, group events situation analysis and context reasoning emotion realm; then, with "Jiangsu Qidong" as the research object, the likely scenario evolution path is deduced, and based on the result of analysis, put forward to strengthen the group of emergency prevention and disposal mechanism construction, so as to improve the prevention of sudden group of grass-roots government incident and emergency handling ability.