| The end of the cold war brought the demise of the communist bloc led by the Soviet Union. Confrontational bloc politics came to an end as the Soviet Union engaged in a major reorientation of its foreign policy. Some states, such as North Korea, however, resisted the ensuing wave of democratization. Why do some states change their foreign policies while others do not? Realism, liberalism, and constructivism provide unsatisfactory answers and have to be complemented by a belief system analysis of national leaders. This dissertation employs automated content analysis to analyze the beliefs of the Soviet and North Korean leadership over time and delivers conclusions about the decision-making propensities and dispositions of Mikhail Gorbachev and Kim Il Sung. It also employs sequential game theory to evaluate the impact of these leaders' beliefs on the actual foreign policy behavior of the Soviet Union and North Korea. This dissertation thus brings together two men who helped shape a unique historical moment---the end of the cold war. This moment redefined the theory and practice of international relations and left a heritage that we face today---a world in which security threats no longer emanate from the rivalry of superpowers but from the existence of rogue states such as North Korea. This moment is of outstanding importance for the scientific and the policy making-communities. Theoreticians need to understand the mechanisms of experiential learning and structural adaptation in transforming international politics. Practitioners need to understand the nature of declining and newly emerging threats. |
