| Natural hazards pose significant threats to nations and communities worldwide. Among these natural shocks are earthquakes, which claim a significant amount of lives each year. A single seismic event can lead to the death of hundreds of thousands of individuals. The 2010 Haiti earthquake, for example, claimed approximately 230,000 lives, displaced millions and led to the complete collapse of the state apparatus. The consequences of such natural shocks on society are not trivial. Yet, significant variation of mortality rates across nations is an empirical reality. Moving beyond the geophysical explanations of destruction caused by earthquakes, what else explains differing levels of devastation across societies? I argue that destructive outcomes of seismic episodes are moderated by political, economic and social factors. This study systematically tests the effects of economic development, regime type, political capacity (Organski and Kugler, 1980; Arbetman and Kugler, 1997) and social capital on cross-national observations of deaths, injuries and people left homeless following a seismic event over the period 1960--2007. After controlling for relevant geophysical factors, I find evidence of a significant dampening effect of income and government effectiveness on expected numbers of deaths and injuries. Regime type does not have a significant effect on expected death. Democratic countries, however, are more likely to suffer from fewer injured and homeless survivors following an earthquake disaster, suggesting that electoral incentives for disaster risk reduction seem to be most salient following the seismic event and not prior to it. The results of the cross-national estimations of earthquake risk also suggest that countries with higher social capital face lower levels of expected injuries and displaced survivors. The relationship between social capital and earthquake mortality, however, seems tenuous. |
