Research On Domestic Flight Delay Cost Modeling And Empirical Study

The intensified flight delays have put enormous strains on the development of air transport industry in China and decreased the operating efficiency,service quality and market competence of the Chinese air transport industry.In addition,flight delays have result in huge loss of the air transport industry,the passengers and even the entire national economy.The comprehensive sight to the cost of flight delay can help to intensify the knowledge of improving flight punctuality and the quality of air service,as well as give impetus to take effective measures to control flight delays.Although several researches previously discussed the flight delay cost,they usually focused on the augment of the operating costs of the air carriers and the time value loss of the passengers.The study on the impacts of fligh delays on the air carriers' revenue and national economy is seldom.Besides,the applicaplity of the former methodology needs to be discussed as well.In order to comprehensively study the domestic flight delay cost,this dissertation adopts the methodology of composing econometric models,which containes the following subproblems.Based on deeply analysing the flight schedule making rules,this dissertation expands the flight delay time concepts to not only conclude the flight delay against schedule flight arrival time,but also conclude the flight delay against ideal flight arrival time.The expansion of flight delay concepts lay a comprehensive foundation of evaluating the domestic flight delay cost.By taking domestic flight delay time as one of the independent variables,this dissertation builds an airline trans-log cost model to deal with the nonlinear correlation between the airline operating cost and the flight delay.Then,the coefficient of flight delay in the trans-log cost model can be used to reflect and examine the impact of the variation of flight delay on the airline operating cost.Given the interrelationship between air passenger demand and air fare,this dissertation builds an simultaneous equations model of air passenger demand and air fare by taking domestic flight delay time as one of the independent variables to explore the impact of flight delay on air passenger demand and air fare.Accordingly,the influence of flight delay on airlines revenue can be investigated.From the perspective of the whole journey of passengers,the dissertation counts the passengers flight delay time because of the flight delay against schedule flight arrival time and ideal flight arrival time,as well as flight cancellation and missing the connecting flight.In order to analyse precisely the time value of different kinds of passengers,production approach is used to estimate the time value of business passengers,and income approach is used to assess the time value of leisure passengers.Based on these outcomes,this dissertation assesses integrally the passenger's time loss due to the domestic flight delay.In the light of the negative affect of flight delay on the whole national economy due to the decrease of operating efficiency and outcomes generated by flight delay,the dissertation constructs the model of the impact of domestic flight delay on national economy with input-output method to evaluate the decreasing of overall economic output due to domestic flight delay.Through above analysis,this dissertation clarifies the mechanism of flight delay cost and put forward the methodology of evaluating the flight delay cost.These research findings are of great significance in both theory and practice in enriching and deepening the research methods of flight delay control.Meanwhile,the assessment of fligh delay cost based on the models composed in this dissertation provides more scientific basis of investment decision making and treatment schemes of flight delay control for the government authorities and the entities of air transport industry.