| Urbanization is the dynamic process of transformation that a country or region from a traditional agricultural-led social form to a non-agricultural modern urban society dominated by the continuous development of productive forces,the continuous advancement of science and technology,and the continuous optimization of industrial structure.This process involves the agglomeration of population movements and economic activities in spatial space,causing changes in population occupations,industrial structures,and land space divisions.It is prevalent throughout the world.However,under China's unique household registration system and inclined regional economic policies,on the one hand,China's urbanization process is slow and lagging behind the speed of economic development for a long period of time.On the other hand,the interaction between population movement and economic agglomeration in China also shows a time-varying feature.The simultaneous implementation and cross-cutting effects of a series of economic reform measures in the new era will affect the population and economic structure within the geographical space for a long period of time in the future.How will the new round of agglomeration brought about by the innovation-driven strategy and the supply-side reform affect the new round of population,especially the labor force,and thus the impact on the balanced development of the regional economy? It is a research topic that cannot be bypassed by the coordinated development of urban and rural areas and the regional economy in the “new era”.Therefore,it also leads to two important issues in this dissertation:First,regarding the imbalance of regional economy,Williamson's inverted U-shaped conditional convergence curve does not seem to explain that China has entered the ranks of middle-income countries,but the regional economic gap cannot Enter the convergence interval.Second,under the current economic new normal background,whether population mobility,especially the flow and allocation of high-quality labor population,can become a breakthrough to promote economic transformation and increase the contradiction between rich and poor.At the same time,can we increase the supply and effective allocation of infrastructure and public service resources,affect individual mobility(migration)behavior decision-making,and then scientifically and effectively guide the new round of population movement and space distributed that released by the innovation-driven and industrial transfer promotion process?This dissertation starts from the perspective of population movements accompanied by the increase of economic agglomeration and the expansion of regional economic gap.On the basis of the “dual economic theory” of rural surplus labor transfer in neoclassical economics,combined with the new economic geography “DS monopoly competition” "Model and "center-periphery" model,constructing a theoretical framework of endogenous interaction between labor mobility and economic agglomeration incorporating spatial factors.Furthermore,based on the classic heterogeneous labor mobility model of new economic geography,the effects of labor mobility barriers and labor quality improvement on regional economic agglomeration are studied.The main content consists of three parts,a total of six chapters:the first part is the theoretical part,including two chapters.The first chapter briefly summarizes the research background,research purposes and significance,the literature review of related researches at home and abroad,research ideas,methods and content structure,innovation points and deficiencies.The second chapter introduces the related concepts involved in the research,and combs the interaction mechanism between population flow and economic spatial agglomeration under the neoclassical economic theory and the new economic geography theory,supplemented by “economic globalization” and innovation-driven strategic influence mechanism.The floating population structure that affects both economic agglomeration(economics category)and income stratification(sociology category)is used as an entry point to build a theoretical logical framework for population mobility and economic agglomeration in China.It also analyzes the characteristics of population mobility and economic agglomeration in typical developed countries and regions,summarizes the excellent practices of population mobility and allocation,and provides experience for China's reforms entering the deepwater region.The second part is mainly about descriptive status analysis and empirical test,including three chapters.The first chapter starts from the historical process of regional economic development in China,and analyzes the fitting between the dynamic changes of economic activities and the dynamic trend of population movements in the process of urbanization,and proposes that there is a “Simpson Paradox” in the regional imbalance caused bythe population mobility and economy under the background of China's lagging urbanization.And summarizes the possible reasons why the spatial agglomeration of economic factors such as labor population has not driven the regional income gap into the “inverted U-shaped” inflection point;The second chapter tests the causal relationship between the population flow and the economic agglomeration of the total sample and the group sample through the Granger causality test method,and further corroborates the “Simpson Paradox” through the comparison of the results;The third chapter focuses on the spatial correlation between population mobility and economic agglomeration through empirical analysis.By studying the interaction between economic agglomeration and population movement in 286 cities in China,we sort out the differences in population mobility patterns between “oversized cities-big cities-small and medium cities-small cities” within and between regions,and how they affect economic agglomeration in the region.Level,compare the heterogeneity of economic development patterns in different periods,different regions and different types of cities,and analyze why the regional policy fairness and efficiency in the current transition period are in a dilemma.And why is the economic growth mode difficult to change? We have found an entry point for balancing economic growth and regional coordinated development,and present the arguments and arguments for the current debate on “prioritizing the development of large cities to improve efficiency or prioritizing the development of small cities.”The third part is conclusions and policy recommendations.this dissertation attempts to propose a generalized plan that is in line with China's deepening supply-side reform and transformation of economic development mode in the new era,and analyzes the effectiveness of the program,and proposes constructive policy recommendations.It also forecasts the follow-up research and systematically summarizes the paper.The exploration and research on balancing the economic growth and regional disparity in the new period by optimizing the mobility of the population,especially the high-quality labor population,and proposing the direction of the next research.The main research findings and conclusions of this dissertation as follows:First,The rate at which the regional economy tends to equilibrium and convergence is onlyrelated to the share of per capital effective material capital output,the attractiveness of per capital effective income to population movements,and the ratio of effective human capital levels owned by migrants to socially effective human capital.Therefore,the high-quality labor population with human capital in China is concentrated from the central and western regions like the eastern developed regions,which will make the developed regions tend to convergence to the steady state convergence level,while the underdeveloped regions tend to slow toward the steady state convergence level.Eventually,the inter-regional economic gap widened,and theoretically supported the regional economic conditions convergence hypothesis,while explaining the possible reasons for the delay in convergence.Second,China's population movement and economic agglomeration have "Simpson's paradox phenomenon",that is,although the assumption that the regional economic conditions of China's regional economic conditions are converged is still satisfied,the objective fact that the inter-regional economy delays entering the inflection point of the inverted U-shaped convergence curve continues.The income growth effect and income distribution effect of population mobility,the former is the overall improvement of the per capital income level of the economic activity agglomeration area and the economic backward area,and the latter is characterized by the differentiation of the per capital income level between regions and the polarization of income structure.The overall analysis and group comparison results show that for the super-urban cities and mega cities in developed regions,small cities and medium-sized cities in underdeveloped regions,the income growth effect and income distribution effects of population movements have all played a role.However,the urban system in developed regions has gradually become more advanced,and the economic growth rate has increased faster.The urban system in underdeveloped regions has gradually become lower and the economic growth rate has increased slowly.The reason for the "Simpson's paradox phenomenon" is that the movement of population within the spatial scope brings about the concentration and industrial agglomeration of economic activities in space,leading to the inflow of other economic factors,and promoting the level of capital investment and technological innovation in the agglomeration area.The ability to increase rapidly,resulting in faster economic consolidation.Thirdly,the scale effect of China's population movement has not been fully exerted.That is to say,in many cities in China,from the perspective of economic scale,population size and land area,the scale of the economy is small and the population size and land area are too large.In the context of insufficient population free flow,the population size of large cities is large,but the population density is relatively low.Therefore,the view of restricting population inflows into large cities is open to question.Increasing factor productivity(efficiency)and increasing effective supply will stimulate and release the momentum of economic growth,so that the regional gap will accelerate into the “inverted U-shaped” inflection point from large to narrow.If the population movement is restricted,this turning point will be delayed.In addition,the population agglomeration space still exists in many large cities.For large cities,the key is to learn the excellent experience of international high-density urban management,and to optimize the urban structure and the effective supply of public services to alleviate the urban diseases risk that may result from further population agglomeration.Fourth,China's population movement and population migration have shown a diversified trend.(1)The pulling force of China's population migration mainly includes three aspects:economic factors(income gap,employment opportunities),distance factors(traffic costs),public service resource factors(infrastructure supporting,medical,education,social security and other resources).The pulling force that leads to population migration in China mainly includes three aspects:economic factors(such as income gap,employment opportunities),distance factors(such as transportation costs),and availability of public service resources(such as infrastructure support,medical care,education,Social security,etc.).During the period from reform and opening up to the new normal period,the regional economy continues to develop and the regional gap expands.Under the effect of population migration,the heterogeneity of population migration patterns is significant,and the population absorption capacity varies greatly in different regions.The highly urbanized eastern coastal cities have strong sedimentation and are difficult to be restricted by the household registration system;the provinces with high urbanization level and rapid advancement are in a state of large-scale migration of foreign agricultural population,and the sedimentation of the population is not Strong.(2)The phenomenon of population mobility itself also has significant regional heterogeneity.As regional differences in economic agglomeration efficiency continue to expand and regional basic public service supply levels increase,this regional heterogeneity of population mobility may be strengthened or weakened,depending on the hierarchical structure of the floating population and the results of basic public service allocation.The diversion(stratification)in the process of population movement essentially affects the urban efficiency between regions and within the region.The expansion of efficiency differences leads to an increase in income disparity.(3)The viscous difference of the floating population at different levels is significant,the skill and innovation talents are the most sticky(essentially related to the current regional policy),and the working class and the migrant workers are the weakest.This difference in viscosity or precipitation rate affects the comprehensive competitiveness of different types of cities at the same economic agglomeration level,which in turn affects the migration decision of the floating population and forms a diversified trend of population flow.The weaker the influx,the easier it is to reflow,although the acquired skills of the return population can compensate for the efficiency gap,but if the outflow is lacking in endowment advantages,this efficiency is not enough to narrow the gap between regions.Last,Suggestions for optimizing the new round of population movement under the background of economic transformation.(1)The improvement of public service service supply and matching efficiency can promote the rationalization and equalization of population flow,but there is a threshold for its role,which is the main decision of depreciation.The influencing factors will shift from economic factors to public service factors,and the negative impact of the siphon effect will be weakened.Under the stimulus of “financial liberalization” and “Internet +”,the effectiveness of monetary policy in the real economy is declining.Under the expectation that asset income is much higher than the expected labor income,liquidity cannot be injected into the real economy and thus promote per capital income.The rapid increase in the level,in the short term,economic factors are still an important factor affecting population migration decisions in the short term,and the influence of non-economic factors is rising in the long period.China's current regional disparity is significant,and population mobility is inadequate.The rapid urbanization model based on urban agglomerations(urban circles)should pay attention to the long-term planning of supply and allocation of infrastructure and public services to avoid duplication of planning and waste of resources.Moreover,some of the reform measures are immediate(short-term effective),and some are once and for all.The government needs to make a distinction,and advance in stages and in sub-regions.(2)There are two kinds of existing disputes:one supports the optimization of public service levels and the employment market in areas with developed economy(representing high wages).As long as the production efficiency is improved,there is no need to worry about the burden of fiscal expenditure and the diseases of big cities;The other is to support the improvement of public service levels and the job market on the spot in economically underdeveloped areas(including rural labor outflow areas).The main purpose is to alleviate the over-concentration of populations to central cities,leading to urban diseases in central cities,easing financial pressures and resolving backward areas.Problems such as insufficient urban economic vitality.this dissertation supports the first view.At present,China's economy is in a new normal period,economic growth slows down,employment pressure increases and living costs increase,which strengthens the discrete power of central cities,making some migrants choose to return to economically underdeveloped but live In the lower-cost central and western regions,in the short-term,cities in underdeveloped regions can stick to this part of the return group,but the Chinese economy is currently shifting to an innovation-driven development model,and many cities with a large amount of synergy and transformation of innovation results are in The economically developed coastal areas,and thus the transformation of overseas advanced technology still tends to be completed in China's coastal cities.After the rapid development of the ability to carry out research and innovation in line with international standards through the “dry middle school” model,after the transformation to innovation-driven,the rural labor population return trend caused by the economic downturn in the early stage will be reversed,mainly depending on the large-scale complex synergy of cities in the developed eastern regions.The capacity(the ability to produce goods on a large scale)increases the demand for the labor force.In the long run,the situation of population concentration in large cities will not be reversed.In the future,combined with the forecast of total population changes,regional policy planning,the distribution changes of foreign capital,it is possible to make a general estimate of the optimal scale of China's urban system,so as to guide the scientific and rational flow and spatial reconstruction of the population through government and market forces.In turn,it will help to bring into play the economic agglomeration effect and alleviate regional disparities,and achieve inclusive development that balances fairness and efficiency. |
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