The Research Of Farmers' Risk Perception And Its' Influence On Their Transfer Willingness And Behavior In Capital-oriented Land Transfer

Rural land transfer is considered to be an important land policy measure to solve the current abandonment and fragmentation of cultivated land,to promote moderate scale management of agriculture,and to realize agricultural modernization in China.With the development of the economy and society,China has correspondingly perfected the top-level design of rural land transfer,and carried out some beneficial explorations and innovations in rural land transfer,including allowing industrial and commercial capital with certain economic strength going to the country and purchasing collective or peasant land management rights in certain period,using technology implementing agricultural scale management and construction of modern agricultural parks.The land transfer method driven by capital to the countryside is also called capital-oriented land transfer.However,the land transfer effect produced by this policy does not seem to break the "low level dilemma" of land transfer,and the ratio of farmers' land flowing to industrial and commercial capital is still at a low level.At the same time,the opportunistic behavior of industrial and commercial capital occurs in some areas,which leading to the irregularity of land transfer,and implying much "hidden risk".Therefore,it is important to answer the following questions,that is,what is the current risk situation in capital-oriented land transfer,how do farmers perceive risk,can risk perception explains farmers' willingness and behavior of land transfer.The paper mainly studied three aspects,that is,risk,risk perception and risk perception utility.First,Study of the risk.Under the framework of the ecosystem theory,the Capital-oriented land transfer risk was identified as economic risk,social risk and natural risk.The risk generation mechanism was studied based on the ecological environment risk generation theory and energy accidental release theory.The risk was ranked using Delphi Method,Risk Matrix and Borda Sorting Method.The results showed that the identified risks have complex formation mechanisms,and most of the risks are above the middle or high level.Second,Study of the risk perception.Firstly,According to domestic and foreign literatures,the connotation of farmers' risk cognition in capital-oriented land transfer was defined,and the measurement indicators were constructed to divide farmers' risk cognition into risk cognition in current situation and in historical situation.Then we analyzed the risk perception status and characteristics based on survey data.The results showed that the risk perception of farmers was relatively high,and there was the perception deviation in the land property right risk and land adjustment risk.Secondly,based on the Distributed Expansion Theory,the factors influencing the formation of farmers' risk cognition was studied using regression model.We found that individual force,regional force and cultural force have different effects on farmers' risk cognition.Third,Study of the risk perception utility.Based on empirical data,we studied the impact of risk perception on land transfer willingness and behavior.Firstly,according to relevant theories,the paper constructed models and applied AHP to test the hypotheses.It was found that farmers' risk perception,risk attitude,land transfer price and trust factor have impact on the willingness to transfer land;Secondly,based on the expanded protective behavior theory and the relationship between willingness and behavior,the multiple classification Logistic model was applied for regression analysis in this paper.The results showed that risk cognition,stakeholder cognition and protective behavior cognition influenced the behavior formation and willingness transfering behavior in capital-oriented land transfer.Compared with previous studies,there were three contributions in the article.Firstly,enriching the research on land transfer.The paper analyzed the current situation of farmers' risk perception in capital-oriented land transfer and the impact of farmers' risk perception on transfer willingness and behavior,providing a new perspective for in-depth understanding of land transfer.Secondly,deepening research on risk perception.Combining the relevant theories of social psychology,the paper studied risk cognition and its influencing factors,and built an index system for empirical analysis,providing a framework for the analysis of farmers' policy implementation.Thirdly,increasing the usability of research conclusions.The research conclusions of this paper can provide a direct reference for improving the efficiency of capital-oriented land transfer,provide a reference for China to prevent risks when formulating and implementing land policies in the future,and improve the efficiency of policy implementation based on the behavior of farmers.The research conclusions of this paper have the following enlightenments to improve the efficiency of capital-oriented land transfer.Firstly,according to risk characteristics and risk formation mechanisms,we can applied corresponding risk management strategies such as risk avoidance,risk reduction,risk transfer,risk maintenance and risk acceptance,and block the occurrence or spread of capital-led land transfer risks from the source of risk formation.Secondly,paying attention to the role of farmers' risk cognition in capital-oriented land transfer,reducing farmers' risk cognition from personal force,regional force and cultural force,and increasing farmers' willingness and behavior to transfer.Thirdly,while stabilizing the income from land rents,the government should pay more attention to improving farmers' trust in the regulation,and increasing their expectations of land transfer from material and psychological benefits.Fourthly,taking different measures to break risk communication barriers and improve farmers' ability to resist risk.