Sustainable Development Of Man-Land System From The Perspective Of Supply And Demand

In the face of the increasingly acute contradiction between man and earth,the relationship between man and earth and its changes have become an important theme in the study of modern geography,as well as the focus of the future earth plan and the sustainable development goals of the United Nations,which directly affect the sustainable development of human society and economy.Our country actively carries out the scientific development view,walks the green development road,sets up and practices the development idea that "lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets".These are the concrete practice form of the human-land relation theory under the new situation.In the process of rapid economic growth in Shandong Province,the extensive economic development model has caused severe human-land conflicts.Especially with the carbon peak,carbon neutralization goal,as a coal consumption,manufacturing and heavy industry-oriented industrial province,Shandong faces huge carbon reduction pressure.After the implementation of the new and old kinetic energy transformation strategy in Shandong Province in 2018,the basic factors supporting high-speed economic growth,including endogenous and exogenous factors,demand and supply will undergo significant changes,and the extension-type economic growth with factor input as the main source of power will face unsustainable challenges.In the past,researches on human-land system were carried out from the aspects of economy,society and ecology,The new era is faced with more complex human-land contradiction,more spatial planning and governance practices,and the research perspective of human-land relationship needs to be expanded.In view of this,based on the concept of supply-demand balance in economics,based on the theory of ecosystem services,Masno's theory of demand hierarchy,and the theory of spatial balance of regional development,this paper creatively puts forward a research framework of sustainable development of human-land system from the perspective of supply and demand,and puts forward a new method of sustainability assessment and classification of human-land system.Taking Shandong Province as a case study,the supply index and demand index of "land" on provincial and municipal scales are calculated.Based on the analysis of the spatial and temporal evolution of human-land system supply and demand,the sustainability of human-land system in Shandong Province is evaluated,and the coupling coordination of human-land system is analyzed.According to the analysis and evaluation results and the development practice of Shandong Province,the optimization path of sustainable development of human-land system in Shandong Province is put forward.(1)In theory and method,based on the existing relevant theories and concepts,the general framework of the sustainable development of human-land system is constructed from the perspective of supply and demand.Firstly,the concept of "human" and "land" from the perspective of supply and demand is clarified,the relationship between regional sustainable development and human-land system is sorted out.Then the theoretical framework of human-land system sustainable development research,the human-land system sustainability index and the division method of human-land system coordination types from the perspective of supply and demand are put forward.With reference to the concept of supply and demand in economics,the ecological environment plays the role of "supply" in the human-land system,which is expressed by the natural supply index.The "supply" focuses on the service supply of the ecosystem on the "land ",including the supply,regulation and support services of different land types such as forest land,grassland,farmland,wetland and water area,and calculates the service value of different types of ecological system.The continuous utilization and transformation of geographical environment by human activities to realize their own sustainable development play the role of "demand ".The " demand " is not limited to the products purchased from the market,but also includes the public natural resources provided by the atmosphere and water body in the ecosystem,which are measured by the human activity demand index.This paper discusses the balance between the basic living and production needs of people and the ecosystem services of land.According to the combination of supply level and demand level,the spatial equilibrium of man-land system is divided into four types: man-land relationship coordination,man-land relationship coordination,man-land relationship coordination,man-land relationship coordination,man-land relationship coordination,man-land relationship coordination,which provides a new framework for sustainable development assessment of man-land system.(2)Combining the mathematical model with GIS spatial information analysis,the natural supply index of Shandong Province from 2000 to 2019 was estimated based on the ecosystem service value calculation method and ESA 300 m resolution land cover data,and the spatial and temporal differences were analyzed using Kernel Density Estimation(KDE)and land use spatial transfer matrix.The results show that the change of land use in Shandong Province is obvious,the total area is gradually decreasing,the urban construction land is gradually expanding,and the ecological land is decreasing.These are mainly because of the influence of geographical location,resource endowment,and population dividend.The economic development and urbanization of Shandong Province are accelerating,and the urban space is continuously expanding.From 2000 to 2019,the total value of ecosystem production,regulation and support services in Shandong Province finally tended to decline,and the total supply of ecosystem services increased first and then decreased.Spatially,the total supply of ecosystem services in Shandong Province was higher in the central region,lower in the east and west,and higher in the east than in the west.The numbers of high-value areas increased significantly,and the numbers of prefecture-level cities in low-value and middle-value areas decreased.(3)The human demand index system is constructed from five aspects: population pressure,economic development,natural resource consumption,food demand pressure and pollution discharge pressure.The spatial and temporal differentiation of human demand index in Shandong Province is analyzed by using Standard Deviational Ellipse(SDE)and various statistical analysis methods.The results show that the Human Demand Index(HDI)shows a fluctuating and increasing trend from time to time,and will be affected by other factors outside the system,indicating that the stability of the system needs to be improved.In terms of spatial distribution,it presents the agglomeration state with Jinan,Zibo and Qingdao as the core,and the spatial distribution form of strip connection.The high-value areas of human demand are always Jinan,Zibo,Jining,Qingdao and Weihai,and these high-value cities have formed the northeast-southwest development belt in the province.According to the change of the standard deviation ellipse,the center of gravity of the ellipse gradually moves to the southwest,indicating that the center of gravity of the human demand index gradually moves to the southwest city of the province.The increasing area of the standard deviation ellipse indicates that the human demand index is gradually dispersed and the gap between cities is gradually narrowed,which is in line with the provincial policy of emphasizing coordinated development.(4)Based on the above analysis results,the Human-land System Sustainability Index(HESI)from the perspective of supply and demand is used to evaluate and analyze the sustainability and spatial-temporal pattern of Shandong Province.The results showed that the human-land system sustainability index of Shandong Province showed an downward trend from 2000 to 2019,reflecting the pressure and stress of human demand on natural supply.From the spatial pattern of human-land system sustainability index of different prefecture-level cities,the human-land system sustainability index of Jinan City,Laiwu City and Liaocheng City was low for a long time,and the human-land system sustainability index of Linyi City,Weifang City,Dongying City and Dezhou City was relatively high.From the analysis of space-time transformation of human-land system supply-demand balance,the number of human-land system coordination cities gradually increased.Jinan City,Zaozhuang City,Qingdao City,Zibo City,Laiwu City belong to a long-term human-land system of uncoordinated cities.(5)The coupling degree and coupling degree model is used to calculate the coupling degree of-earth system in Shandong Province.The results show that the coupling degree of human-land system in Shandong Province first rises and then maintains a stable trend,while the coupling degree of human-land system shows a rising and then falling trend.From the evolution of the spatial pattern of human-land system coupling degree,the coupling degree level between human demand and natural supply in each prefecture-level city is high as a whole,and the number of prefecture-level cities in the high level of coupling stage is not only the highest,but also shows a gradually increasing trend.From the evolution of the spatial pattern of human-land system coupling degree,the coupling degree level of each prefecture-level city is low as a whole,and its spatial pattern is relatively stable without significant change.(6)From the aspect of internal mechanism and operability of human-land system supply and demand in Shandong Province,the paper constructs the optimization path of regional sustainable development,and puts forward countermeasures and suggestions based on supply perspective,demand perspective and supply-demand perspective.Improve the supply of "land" by strengthening the construction of key ecological function protection areas,formulating the red line for ecological protection,promoting the efficient utilization of water and soil resources,ensuring the safety of resource supply,strengthening the joint prevention and control of pollution and improving the environmental quality of the region.Optimize the demand of "people" by promoting the adjustment of industrial structure,promoting the industrial transformation and upgrading,accelerating the construction of modern energy system,promoting the energy transformation,constructing the modern environmental governance system,improving the level of ecological environmental governance,improving the ecological awareness of residents,and stimulating the enthusiasm of the public to participate in environmental protection.Through the construction of land and space planning system and the improvement of environmental quality ecological protection compensation mechanism from the supply and demand perspective to solve the problem of human-land coordination.The innovation of this research has three points.First,based on the perspective of supply and demand,put forward a new framework of sustainable development assessment of human-land system,It also avoids the problem of deviation in the study of the unity and relevance of man and land.Secondly,a new method of human-land system sustainability assessment and classification is proposed.Using ecosystem service and human demand index,so as to make the supply of "land" more objective and scientific quantification.The index system of human demand breaks through the problem of only using a single index to evaluate from one aspect of "human" or "land".According to the combination relationship between supply and demand level,a new method of classification of human-land system coordination types is proposed.The spatial equilibrium of human-land system is classified into four types,It effectively solves the problem of unclear interaction between subsystems in the traditional sustainable development assessment of human-land system.Thirdly,it provides decision support for the sustainable development of Shandong province.This paper studies the coupling coordination of human-earth system in Shandong Province,and explores how to deal with the relationship between geographical environment and human activities in the process of new and old kinetic energy conversion,so as to provide decision support for the new and old kinetic energy conversion in Shandong Province.Looking forward to the future research,the indicator system needs to be further improved,and the smaller scale research and horizontal comparative research need to be further strengthened.The sustainable development status and trend of the human-land system at different scales will be deeply analyzed from the multiple perspectives of comprehensive geographical environment and human activity profit and loss change,economic input and output,social ecological civilization construction and scientific and technological progress.