Research On Decision-making Of Cold Chain Logistics Of Agricultural Products Under Uncertainty

China is accelerating the construction of a new development pattern with domestic circulation as the main body and domestic and international dual circulation promoting each other,and it is urgent to improve and smooth the circulation system.In the context of the accelerated quality improvement and upgrading of China’s consumer market,people’s quality requirements for fresh agricultural products,processed food and other cold chain products are gradually improving,and the market demand is constantly expanding.Objectively,higher requirements are put forward for the management of cold chain logistics in China.The epidemic in 2020 has put forward a severe test for cold chain logistics.The prevention and control measures taken to prevent the spread of the epidemic may cause interruption risks to members at all levels and circulation links in the agricultural product supply chain,restricting the supply,circulation and consumption of fresh agricultural products,and even leading to a certain level of guarantee for the supply of basic living materials.degree of tension.Based on the impact of the epidemic on the cold chain logistics of fresh agricultural products,the emergency distribution,coordination mechanism and recovery strategies of cold chain logistics of fresh agricultural products under uncertain environment are studied.The main research contents include:1.Aiming at the problems of uncertain quantity,unclear location and coverage,a two-stage model based on improved clustering algorithm and center of gravity method is used to study the location selection of cold chain logistics centers.The model is based on actual data,and the calculation results are compared with the site selection results of traditional clustering methods to illustrate the effectiveness of the model from the perspective of transportation costs.2.Based on the scenario analysis method,aiming at minimizing the expected total cost and the shortest delivery time,an optimization model of emergency cold chain logistics distribution with time window is established.The model not only optimizes the distribution relationship and route,but also optimizes the decision of item purchase and cold chain transportation vehicle leasing,and the validity of the model is verified by the actual data of the enterprise.3.A three-level supply chain of fresh agricultural products with embedded freshness function is established and the optimal freshness,optimal pricing decision and supply chain profit of each participating enterprise under decentralized decision-making,collaborative decision-making and centralized decision-making are studied.The AT solution is used to distribute the benefits of the two situations under the collaborative decision-making and the alliance formed by the centralized decision-making,so as to realize the optimization and coordination of the three-level supply chain of fresh agricultural products.4.A three-level supply chain system is established,taking chilled meat as an example,and the system dynamics method is used to study the interruption of agricultural product supply chain under the background of the epidemic.By setting several typical supply chain interruption scenarios such as supply slowdown,production capacity interruption,sudden demand change and road blockage,the impact of different government subsidy strategies on the recovery of the supply chain system is studied.5.A three-level supply chain system is established,taking the agricultural product wholesale market as an example,and the system dynamics method is used to study the supply chain interruption and offline and online demand transfer caused by the epidemic.By setting supply interruption,demand surge and demand transfer scenarios,the impact of alternate suppliers and different demand distribution methods on the recovery of the supply chain system is studied.