Research On Port Supply Chain Network Risk Evolution Mechanism And Control Strategy

Port supply chain network is formed by ports,intermediate carriers and nodes in hinterlands where ports play the key role.Port supply chain network is not olny an important part of marine transportation but also is the main types of land transportation.The stability of port supply chain network affects the continuity of the cargo import and export.However,due to the diversity of participants in the service network,the complexity of the business process,and the uncertainty of the internal and external environment,the service nodes in the service network often face various risks.When the risk of one service node occurs,it will lead the damages caused by this service node propagate to other nodes which connect with the risk node,and even have an impact on the entire service network.Therefore,understanding the inducing factors of port supply chain network risks,finding out the general laws and transmission characteristics of risk generation,and proposing and making reasonable risk prevention and control strategies are important issues that need to be solved urgently.In view of this,this dissertation takes the main process of risk management as the idea to study the risk issues of the port supply chain network.It is expected to provide theoretical and methodological reference for the risk management of the port supply chain network.The research content of this article is mainly divided into the following parts:(1)Research on risk generating factors of port supply chain network.Since the port supply chain network is composed of two types of service entities,port enterprises and logistics enterprises,this study uses relevant literature and combined with the data obtained from investigation and research to identify and screen the risk inducing factors of the two types of service entities.Three-tier risk factor system.Then,design a new expert opinion questionnaire and data collection method,and use the FAHP method based on triangle fuzzy to evaluate the risk factors.Finally,calculate the relative importance and overall importance of risk factors at all levels,and analyze the results.This research clarifies the composition of the port supply chain network risk,the importance of each risk factor,and the similarities and differences between the two types of service entities’ risk factors,and provides the basis for subsequent risk evolution research based on risk factors.(2)Research on the risk evolution mechanism of the port supply chain network.Based on the research on the risk factors of port enterprises and logistics enterprises,drawing on the knowledge element model and dissipation theory,combining risk factors and system entropy,taking external factors,internal factors and prevention and control factors as input,and coupling the status and weight of each factor As output,the risk entropy generation model of port enterprises and logistics enterprises is constructed,and the risk state of service nodes is transformed into an entropy state,and a general port supply chain network risk entropy generation model is further proposed.Dissipation theory divides and analyzes the evolution stages of risk entropy.Since the change of risk entropy is caused by mutation,external risk factors,internal risk factors and prevention and control factors are used as control variables,and risk entropy is a state variable to construct a dovetail catastrophe model of risk entropy,and its mutation process,evolution form,Analyze the evolution path and evolution characteristics,and put forward corresponding risk prevention and control recommendations based on the state and location of the risk entropy.This study drew the general laws and characteristics of the risk evolution of the port supply chain network,and provided management reference for managers and participants to dynamically grasp the risk evolution and formulate prevention and control measures.(3)Research on risk control strategy of port supply chain networkBased on the change of the port-hinterland transportation service network risk entropy,risk prevention and risk recovery control strategies are proposed from the perspective of negative entropy injection and network perspective.1)Research on the risk prevention strategy of the port supply chain network.From the perspective of network integration,fully consider the influence of network external utility on the risk prevention strategy in the network,build a port supply chain network risk prevention utility model,and use the network game method to solve the service separately for the two situations of complementary network and complete network.Node risk prevention equilibrium strategy,and analyze the network utility and characteristics of risk prevention.Subsequently,in view of the improvement of the total utility of the port supply chain network risk prevention under the equilibrium state of service node risk prevention,the impact of differentiated risk prevention strategies and non-differentiated risk prevention strategies on the improvement of the total utility of port supply chain network risk prevention was discussed from the perspective of managers.And further address the issue of risk prevention efficiency,and propose risk prevention strategies based on key nodes and key groups.2)Research on the recovery strategy of port supply chain network capacity.Aiming at the recovery of service capabilities after the occurrence of risks,comprehensively consider the antirisk capabilities of the node companies and regions in the port supply chain network,the balance of service selection probability,cargo distribution and service capability recovery,and build the port supply chain network capacity recovery Model.In the research,first,determine the node and regional anti-risk ability measurement indicators,and then propose the differenceprojection algorithm(DE-PP),and combine multiple models and balanced utility models with this article to complete the model construction and target the recovery process Whether to consider balance and propose four recovery strategies.(4)Case analysis.Taking the three provinces of Northeast China as an example,we selected Liaoning Province’s Bohai Rim port cluster and major logistics companies undertaking container transport business in the three provinces of Northeast China to construct a port supply chain network in the three provinces of Northeast China to analyze and verify the characteristics and strategies of risk prevention.Subsequently,in the port supply chain network,3 ports were randomly selected,and 6 logistics companies in each area were randomly selected as the risk occurrence point.Finally,we use this port supply chain network to verify port supply chain network capacity recovery model and recovery strategy,and propose the risk control suggestion.In summary,this article studies the port supply chain network risk issues from three aspects: risk factors,risk evolution,and risk control.The risk control strategy includes precontrol and post-recovery of risks.The conclusions drawn from the research enrich the theoretical system of risk management of the port supply chain network is of important guiding significance for in-depth understanding of the nature of the port supply chain network risk and improving risk prevention and control capabilities.