Urban Shrinkage In Russia

In the process of urbanization development,most cities have experienced a growth stage and a period of prosperity,resulting a surge in population,but some cities have experienced a population decline after stagnant growth.This process of decline is often referred to as “urban contraction” or “urban shrinkage”.In the past 40 years,scholars all over the world have been studying the root causes,incentives,and response policies of urban shrinkage and recession to solve the problem in different regions.The Russian Federation is considered to be one of the largest urban systems in the world,and many cities have also contracted.The Russian scientific literature uses term “depressed” cities to describe shrinkage.So far,the terms and definitions have not been unified,so each study sets the standard of shrinking its definition.To explore the problems related to the urban contraction in Russia,this study puts forward three main objectives: 1)study the driving factors of urban population change through case studies;2)Identify and analyze the types of Shrinking Cities in Russia;4)Put forward the planning strategy to deal with the urban contraction in Russia.In the first part of this study,based on the relevant background and theory,the case studies of three shrinking cities are carried out.This study analyzes three northern Shrinking Cities in Russia to reveal the driving force of population outflow in each case study city.Three northern cities with obvious population decline in the past 30 years-Norilsk,Kurgan,and Zelenogorsk are selected as case cities,and their economic index(EI)reflecting per capita industrial output and social index(SI)reflecting social welfare level are calculated.The results display that the social and economic development of northern cities in this region shows unbalanced growth.This study confirms the direct relationship between the economic well-being of cities and the living standards of the population and reveals the insufficient support of Russia’s current policies for shrinking cities.The second part of the paper mainly focuses on all cities in Russia and summarizes the main types of growing and shrinking cities.On this basis,the clustering study provides some enlightenment on the driving forces and characteristics of urban contraction in Russia.The author applies cluster analysis to883 cities to study the growth and decline process in the past 30 years,which can be summarized into six types: 1)Sustained growth;2)Fluctuating growth;3)Parabolic type(shrinkage after 1991 and increased rapidly after 2008);4)Inverse parabolic type(growth before 2005 and rapid shrinkage after 2005);5)Continuous shrinkage after 1998;6)Continuous shrinkage after 1991.The main findings of type research are: 73% of Russian cities have experienced different degrees of contraction;At present,only 27% of cities are growing or have embarked on the road of stable development.The current type of research covers most cities in Russia,which lays a foundation for further research on the phenomenon and causes of urban shrinkage.In the third part,the author makes an in-depth analysis of the existing international and domestic push-pull factors related to contraction and summarizes the similarities and differences of urban decline factors between Russia and foreign countries.This study further explores why such a large-scale population outflow occurred,as well as the incentives and drivers of the decline of Russian cities.Urban residents will consider the relative attractiveness of the city when deciding to move in or out of the city.The second objective of this study is to analyze and compare the attractiveness and thrust characteristics of Shrinking Cities in Russian and international scientific literature.Five main factors are summarized: economic factors,facility availability factors,social factors,political factors,and climate factors;However,there are significant differences in the driving factors in different countries and regions.Russia’s relevant research focuses on economic factors and regards other factors as derivatives of economic factors.The fourth part puts forward the planning strategies and suggestions for Shrinking Cities in Russia according to the summary of the driving factors of shrinkage.This study puts forward the planning countermeasures for Shrinking Cities in Russia from the perspective of smart contraction.Based on the in-depth study of the causes and mechanism of its contraction,and from the perspective of smart contraction,the objectives of urban planning regulation in Russia are to significantly improve the living environment,revitalize the economy,rebuild social harmony and inherit the history and culture of the city.Put planning strategies including increasing government welfare policies,promoting diversified and coordinated development of industries,and improving spatial attraction.These strategies also have reference value for other Shrinking Cities in Russia.