Economic Loss Measurement And Policy Response Of Typhoon Disasters In China

Influenced by geographical location,landform and climate features,China has more meteorological disasters than most countries in the world in terms of types,frequency,range and severity.Under the influence of climate change,the frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events such as high temperature,drought,rainstorm and flood,and strong typhoon are increasing.Especially in recent years,with the development of urbanization,people are more concentrated in cities and towns,the mobility of economic and social activities is increasing,and the magnifying and cascading effects of meteorological disasters are becoming increasingly prominent.The task of comprehensive disaster prevention and mitigation has become more serious and difficult.To achieve high-quality economic and social development,it is urgent to do a good job in disaster prevention and mitigation in key areas,important industries and major lifeline projects,strengthen the research on the economic impact of meteorological disasters,so as to serve and guarantee the major national development strategy,and comprehensively enhance the comprehensive prevention ability of the whole society to resist meteorological disasters.It is found that under the background of climate change,typhoon disasters are becoming more and more severe,which will have a great impact on the national economy and people’s production and life in coastal areas such as Guangdong Province.In addition,among all meteorological disasters,typhoon disaster statistics are the most complete,the most typical,and the continuity is also very good.Therefore,this study takes Guangdong Province as an example to conduct direct and indirect economic loss measurement analysis of typhoon disasters,and extends and popularize relevant methods to meteorological disasters such as flood,drought and hail,with a view to providing important methods and data support for the government’s disaster statistics and post-disaster emergency financial input.The main research contents are as follows:Firstly,the background,significance,main methods and technical route of the topic are introduced,and the relevant research progress at home and abroad is systematically studied and sorted out.Results show that the economic impact of typhoon disasters at home and abroad research focus in the field of natural science,in social science research is relatively few,and the direct and indirect economic effect is less,combining the application of artificial neural network model and the input-output model of research also less overall,the two methods in the field of application is not yet fully mature.Therefore,this study attempts to systematically measure and analyze the economic impact of typhoon disasters by combining direct and indirect economic impacts with artificial neural network model and input-output model from the perspectives of natural science and social science.There are two main innovation points: one is the use of artificial neural network model and input-output model,combining direct and indirect economic impact,the economic impact of typhoon disaster system measurement research and analysis.Secondly,the direct economic loss measurement method of typhoon disasters is popularised and applied to disasters such as flood,drought and hail,which can provide a series of practical references for the unified management of disaster analysis and loss of various meteorological disasters.Secondly,as a system to measure analysis,on the one hand,combed the typhoon disaster economic loss measure theory framework and technical methods,including disaster economics theory,the climate change theory,artificial intelligence theory and the theory of input-output analysis and neural network,genetic algorithm and the inputoutput model and relevant theoretical method;On the other hand,the main characteristics,future risks and development trends of meteorological disasters in China,as well as the climate characteristics of Guangdong Province and the impact of typhoon and other meteorological disasters are summarized.Thirdly,the GA-BP neural network model is formed by optimizing BP neural network with improved genetic algorithm,and the direct economic loss of typhoon disaster in Guangdong is measured and analyzed,and good results are obtained.In order to make up for the deficiency that the previous similar research did not take inflation into account when obtaining the data of direct economic loss,the present study first adjusted prices before the simulation calculation,which greatly improved the forecasting effect.The results show that the prediction results of GA-BP neural network are close to the real value after adjusting the uniform price,and some points almost coincide with the real value.In reality,because of fields.it damage statistical cycle is long,is not conducive to the government reacted quickly in emergency financial input,and the GA-BP neural network model is based on the historical data to establish the learning mechanism of artificial intelligence,only need to be addressed to the basic factor calculated for input,can be concluded that damage data that has a strong reference value.After the occurrence of typhoon disaster,the economic loss data can be obtained quickly by using this method,which greatly improves the timeliness of the government in disaster statistics.Fourthly,the indirect economic losses of typhoon disasters are further measured and analyzed.This method can effectively make up for the lack of data on industrial economic losses in statistical departments.In reality,there is no official statistics on the economic loss of the industry,only the data of crop disaster and failed harvest area.Therefore,this study proposes a method for calculating agricultural economic losses caused by typhoon disasters,which can calculate the damage rate of agricultural economic losses according to the data of the affected area,the lost area,the sown area of crops and the total output value of crops,so as to obtain the data of direct agricultural economic losses caused by typhoon disasters.Then,the input-output model is used to calculate the indirect economic losses suffered by other related economic sectors on the demand side and the supply side respectively under the direct economic losses suffered by the agricultural sector.The results show that the indirect economic losses of typhoon disasters in Guangdong Province fluctuate in different years,but the amount increases year by year.In some years(such as 2013),the total amount of indirect economic losses is equal to the total amount of direct economic losses,and the sum of the two even accounts for more than 1 percent of the annual GDP and more than 10 percent of the annual public financial revenue.Therefore,in addition to direct economic losses,indirect economic losses should also be considered when the economic losses of typhoon disasters are counted.This research method can provide an important basis for financial input policies of emergency,disaster reduction and post-disaster reconstruction.Fifthly,the GA-BP neural network model is tried to expand and popularize the direct economic loss measurement of disasters such as flood,drought and hail,and a good effect has been achieved.The results show that the GA-BP neural network model is feasible to measure the damage of the above three meteorological disasters,and can be fully extended to measure the direct economic losses of all kinds of meteorological disasters.Sixthly,on the basis of the above meteorological disaster economic loss simulation and measurement analysis,combined with the actual situation of disaster prevention,reduction and relief in China in recent years,From the government’s emergency management should pay attention to the application of mathematical model method,public policy,we must give full consideration to meteorological disaster response to the economic investment and perfect the mechanism of the meteorological disaster emergency management system,the three aspects discussed the meteorological disaster emergency management about government policy Suggestions,so as to provide reference for government departments to disaster prevention disaster reduction and relief work.Thus,the negative impact of meteorological disasters on China’s economic growth can be reduced as far as possible.Finally,the conclusion and future prospects of this study are summarized.In future studies,more artificial intelligence model methods should be explored and applied to measure direct economic losses,so as to effectively improve the applicability of multiple disasters.For the measurement of indirect economic losses,it is necessary to study and improve the input-output model to further improve the measurement accuracy.At the same time,it is necessary to explore and consider the impact of indirect economic losses in other industries except agriculture.