Research On The Effect Of Human Capital Structure Evolution On Regional Economic Growth In Northeast China

With a series of prominent problems,such as the sharp rise of labor cost,gradual decline of demographic dividend and sharp increase of ecological environment pressure,China’s economic development mode has gradually changed from resource consumption type to human capital driven type.Enhancing scientific and technological innovation ability,upgrading the industrial structure,and optimizing the urban-rural dual economic structure are crucial to the stable growth of the regional economy,and these development paths must rely on the support of high-quality human capital.The evolution of human capital structure is mainly characterized by increasing the proportion of high-quality human capital,which is the power source to promote sustainable growth of regional economy.Under the "new normal",the economic growth in Northeast China emphasizes the promotion effect of "new kinetic energy" on economic catch-up,the essence of which is human capital catch-up and the evolution of human capital structure.The human capital structure in Northeast China is gradually optimized,and there is still space for adjustment.The existing research focuses on the quantitative effect of human capital,while the research on the structural effect is relatively few,so it is of great practical significance to discuss the regional economic growth effect of the evolution of human capital structure.Based on the relevant basic theories,the thesis constructs a logical framework of the influence of the evolution of human capital structure on regional economic growth,examines the characteristics and driving factors of the evolution of human capital structure in Northeast China from multi-scale,analyzes the effects of human capital structure evolution on regional economic growth,explores the reasons for the spatial differences of economic growth in Northeast China,points out the practical problems of the influence of human capital structure evolution on regional economic growth in Northeast China,and puts forward relevant optimization countermeasures,so as to provide improvement ideas for effectively promoting sustainable economic growth in Northeast China.The first three chapters of the thesis are the research foundation.Chapter 1 is the introductory section,which expounds the research background and significance,research objectives,methods and technical routes of the thesis,compares and reviews the relevant domestic and international literature.Chapter 2 is the theoretical basis,which summarizes the relevant theories of human capital,structural evolution,regional economic growth and other relevant classical theories,and takes them as the important theoretical support to explore the influence of human capital structure evolution on regional economic growth.Chapter 3 is the theoretical logical framework of the influence of human capital structure evolution on regional economic growth.Firstly,it defines the basic concepts of human capital structure evolution and regional economic growth,and analyzes the dynamic mechanism of human capital structure evolution.Secondly,it explains the importance of studying the influence of human capital structure on regional economic growth from the perspective of structural evolution.Finally,it expounds the direct,indirect and matching mechanisms of the evolution of human capital structure on regional economic growth.Chapter 4 analyzes the characteristics of the human capital structure evolution in Northeast China.Combining the subjective weighting method and coefficient of variation method to determine the weights,the thesis estimates the evolution level of human capital structure by using the method of space vector included angle,and analyzes the present situation and dynamic factors of human capital structure evolution in Northeast China.At the same time,based on the differences of various types of human capital stock in different regions,the thesis comprehensively uses exploratory spatial data analysis method,kernel density function,Theil coefficient T index and convergence model to explore the spatialtemporal changes and regional differences of human capital structure evolution in Northeast China.Chapter 5 to 7 analyze the influence of human capital structure evolution on regional economic growth in Northeast China.Firstly,the thesis analyzes the regional economic growth level and its spatial and temporal characteristics in Northeast China from the perspective of green development.Subsequently,the panel VAR model and the spatial econometric model are used to analyze the direct effect and spatial spillover effect of human capital structure evolution on regional economic growth in the Northeast region,through selfreinforcement of its own productivity.Then,the smooth varying-coefficient model is used to analyze the indirect effect of human capital structure evolution on regional economic growth in Northeast China,by enhancing the productivity of other factors.Finally,the system matching model is used to analyze the matching effect between the two subsystems of human capital structure evolution and regional economic growth and their effects on regional economic growth.Chapter 8 is the part of countermeasures and suggestions.From the perspective of the evolution of human capital structure evolution and the adaptive development of regional economic growth,combined with the practical problems in Northeast China,it puts forward relevant policy suggestions.Finally,it is the main conclusion,innovation,research deficiency and prospect of the thesis.The main conclusions of the thesis are as follows.1.The dynamic distribution characteristics of the evolution of human capital structure in Northeast China showed a trend of continuous improvement,and showed the temporal stage characteristics and relatively stable spatial characteristics of "multi-center agglomeration".The regional economic growth continues to maintain the growth trend,but the growth rate decreases,forming the spatial characteristics of "saddle distribution-balanced distributioncentral agglomeration" with Harbin as the center.2.The overall variations of human capital structure evolution in Northeast China showed a downward trend,roughly showing the change characteristics of "rapid decline-fluctuation decline",and the demand of industrial development was the main factor for its decline.The overall variations in human capital structure evolution are mainly composed of intra-regional variations,and the overlapping differences between regions have weakly contribution to the overall variations.Among them,the overlapping difference between Liaoning and Heilongjiang Province,especially between Liaoning and Jilin Province,showed a narrowing trend.The intra-regional variations are most obvious in Liaoning Province,where the quality of living environment was the main factor.The intra-regional variations were followed by Heilongjiang Province,which was mainly influenced by scientific and technological innovation.The regional difference in Jilin Province was the smallest,which was mainly influenced by the demand of industrial development.The regional variations gradually narrow over time,with the fastest convergence rate in Heilongjiang Province,followed by Jilin Province and the slowest in Liaoning Province.3.Human capital structure evolution in Northeast China has self-strengthening effect,and the intensity of self-strengthening decreased with the increase of lag period.Human capital structure evolution is the direct factor of regional economic growth in Northeast China.In both Heilongjiang and Liaoning Province,human capital structure evolution shows a negative and then positive effect on regional economic growth,while human capital structure evolution shows a positive enhancement mechanism on regional economic growth in Jilin Province.In the next 15 observation periods,the overall development path of Northeast China will not be locked.And human capital structure evolution will play a long-term and stable positive role in promoting regional economic growth in Heilongjiang and Jilin Province.4.Human capital structure evolution in Northeast China has a significant and positive spatial spillover effect on regional economic growth,that is,the evolution of human capital structure in Northeast China will promote the economic growth of surrounding areas,but the impact on its own economic growth is not significant.Human capital structure evolution in Heilongjiang and Liaoning Province has a certain degree of restraining effect on the economic growth of the region and its surrounding areas.Human capital structure evolution in Jilin Province will promote its own economic growth,but the effect on the economic growth of surrounding areas is insignificant.5.Human capital structure evolution in Northeast China has a non-linear effect on regional economic growth.Human capital structure evolution in different provinces has an indirect impact on regional economic growth through different intermediary paths.When the level of human capital structure evolution is low,the region is able to promote economic growth in Northeast China through technological structural upgrading.When the level of human capital structure evolution is high,the region can promote the economic growth through more intermediary paths,and the economic growth in Northeast China can be promoted through the upgrading of technological structure,rationalization of urban and rural income distribution,especially the upgrading of industrial structure.6.The matching effects of human capital structure evolution and regional economic growth in the Northeast China has spatial variability,and the impact of the matching degree of the two subsystems on regional economic growth also exhibits spatial variability characteristics.Under different scales,the human capital structure evolution in Northeast China is ahead of regional economic growth,which leads to a mismatch between the supply and demand structure of human capital that inhibits regional economic growth.In the future development of the region,the role of the human capital structure evolution in stimulating the regional economic growth should be strengthened,with emphasis on the proportion of medium to high human capital and the reasonable allocation of human capital at all levels.From the perspective of provinces,Jilin,Heilongjiang and Liaoning Province rank the matching degree from high to low,but the matching degree of each province is lower than that of the Northeast China.Therefore,the Northeast China should break the inter-provincial administrative boundaries to promote the integrated development.