| There is still a large gap between the role of technological progress in supporting economic development in China and that of developed countries,and the ability of sustainable innovation is weak.Objectively,we must put technological progress in the core position of our national development.Innovation is the first driving force of economic development,and China has comprehensively implemented the innovation-driven development strategy,elevating technological progress to an unprecedented strategic level.In the period of the 14 th Five-Year Plan,the focus of economic and social development is to promote high-quality development,and the quality of development has become the core focus.At present,China’s economic growth mode has been transformed into a connotative and intensive growth mode,and technological progress has become the main driving force and decisive factor of economic growth.China has abundant labor resources.In addition to the long-term severe pressure on total employment,the structural employment problem has become a major issue to be solved urgently.With the promotion of the strategy of building China into a powerful country in science and technology,new technologies are introduced and new industries,new forms of business and new models emerge one after another.The existing skilled labor force only accounts for 26% of the total employment in China,and the total number of skilled personnel is seriously insufficient.Most skilled workers are middle and junior technicians,and the skill structure of the labor force hinders high-quality economic development.How to optimize the existing employment structure has become the key to solve the problem.As one of the three national regional development strategies,pan-Pearl River Delta regional cooperation is positioned as an important region in China’s "The Belt and Road" construction.Against the background that China’s economic development has entered a stage of high-quality development,the regional development model of Pan-Pearl River Delta has also been transformed from factor driven to innovation-driven,and it also faces the problem of prominent contradiction between innovation-driven strategy and employment structure.Therefore,this paper takes the pan-Pearl River Delta region as the research object and focuses on thinking and answering the following three questions: How does technological progress affect the employment structure?What are the characteristics of technological progress in the Pan-Pearl River Delta region? How does technological progress affect the employment structure?This paper takes "theoretical foundation-problem formulation-problem analysis-solution countermeasures" as the research route."The paper uses literature research,comparative analysis and empirical analysis to measure the technological progress of regional and inter-provincial industries and their subdivisions using the DEA-Malmquist index method,constructs a multivariate panel regression model of the impact of technological progress on employment structure,and selects the optimal model through F-test,BP-test and Hausman test.The model is then empirically validated to determine the impact of technological progress on the employment structure of the three regional industries,manufacturing and service sectors,and high-and low-skilled employment in the Pan-PRD region.The findings of the study are as follows:Firstly,the study found that the employment structure of the Pan-PRD region was in line with the industrial structure during the sample period,with the industrial employment structure in the five central and western provinces of the region lagging behind the industrial structure;the regional wholesale and retail trade,manufacturing,and leasing and business services sectors accounted for a higher proportion of employment,with the top three,while the agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,culture,sports and entertainment,and mining sectors accounted for a lower proportion of employment,with the bottom three;at the end of the sample period,six provinces,namely Guangdong,Fujian,Jiangxi,Hunan,Sichuan and Hainan,had a higher proportion of employed persons in urban areas,while the remaining three provinces had a higher proportion of employed persons in rural areas;the number of persons who had obtained primary and secondary skills certificates in the region dominated,and the composition of employed persons who had obtained skills certificates was normally distributed;the average education level of employed persons in the region was mainly junior secondary education,and the composition of education was normally distributed.Secondly,the results of this paper on the measurement of technological progress in the Pan-PRD region based on the DEA-Malmquist index method show that: during the sample period,the regional TFP shows M-shaped fluctuations with an average annual growth rate of 6.6%,and the inter-provincial TFP index fluctuates from 1.049 to 1.083.The regional TFP index for the three industries is positive,and the tertiary industry > secondary industry > primary industry.Third,empirical analysis and testing of the impact of employment structure based on the results of technological progress measurement found that:(1)regional technological progress has a significant negative impact on employment in the primary industry and a significant positive impact on employment in the secondary and tertiary industries.Heterogeneity tests found that regional and inter-provincial technological progress had a significant negative impact on the share of employment in the primary sector.Regional and inter-provincial technological progress had a significant positive impact on the share of employment in the tertiary sector.However,there is heterogeneity in the impact of inter-provincial technological progress on the share of employment in the secondary sector.(2)regional technological progress has a crowding-out effect on employment in the labour-intensive light textile manufacturing industry,and a boosting effect on employment in the capital and technology-intensive resource processing,machinery and electronics manufacturing industries.Heterogeneity tests found that provinces with high levels of technological progress had a more significant crowding-out effect on employment in the light and textile manufacturing industry than provinces with low levels of technological progress;the impact of technological progress on the employment structure of the resource processing and machinery and electronics manufacturing industries was greater in provinces with high per capita wage levels than in provinces with low wage levels.(3)the regional technological progress has a crowding-out effect on employment in traditional service industries and a boosting effect on employment in modern service industries.Heterogeneity tests found that high levels of technological progress had a more significant negative effect on the share of employment in traditional service industries than low levels of technological progress;and high levels of technological progress had a more significant positive effect on the share of employment in modern service industries than low levels of technological progress.Fourth,the impact of technological progress on the employment structure of high-and low-skilled labour in the Pan-PRD region was empirically analysed and tested.The study found that,during the sample period,regional technological progress had a significant negative impact on the employment of high-skilled labour and a significant positive impact on the employment of lowskilled labour.However,there were inter-provincial differences.Heterogeneity tests found that technological progress had a significant negative effect on the employment of high-skilled labour,with a greater effect on high-skilled labour with higher wages.Technological progress had a significant positive effect on the employment of low-skilled labour,with a greater effect on low-skilled labour with low wages.The interaction between technological progress and wage level has a significant positive effect on the employment of high-skilled labour,with the higher the wage level,the greater the effect;the interaction between technological progress and wage level has a significant negative effect on the employment of low-skilled labour,with the higher the wage level,the greater the effect.Combined with the research results,this paper puts forward policy recommendations such as building a regional autonomous and collaborative technological innovation system,creating a collaborative development system for traditional and emerging industries and key industries,a collaborative innovation talent training system,and optimising the regional employment structure and employment service system. |
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