Prediction Of Population Age Structure In Zhejiang Province And Analysis Of Its Influence On Residents’ Consumption

Since the economic reform and open up,the age structure of the population in Zhejiang Province has changed significantly.The decrease of the birth rate,the gradual decrease of the advantage of labor resources,and the deepening of the aging degree of the population have led to the increasing pressure and burden of its social economy.At present,the population age structure of Zhejiang Province is no longer just a population problem,but has risen to an economic problem.Due to the heterogeneous characteristics of consumption behavior of population at different age levels,the change of population age structure will inevitably lead to the fluctuation of the total consumption and consumption structure of Zhejiang residents,and then affect the socioeconomic development of the province.Therefore,it is of significant practical significance to accurately predict the changing trend of the future population age structure in Zhejiang Province and explore the impact of the future population age structure on residents’ consumption.This study firstly analyzed the current situation of population age structure in Zhejiang Province by descriptive statistical method.Then,the improved cohort factor model with better prediction accuracy was used to analyze the trend of population size and population age structure in Zhejiang Province from 2021 to 2050 from the aspects of population size,the proportion of children,the proportion of working-age population,and the proportion of elderly population.Finally,the paper further demonstrates the influence of the population age structure on the consumption level and structure of Zhejiang Province in the future.Research results show that: Firstly,the 2021-2050 years in zhejiang province population presents the downward trend after rising.Then children population and children’s population declines before present trend of rising population.Meanwhile,labour population ratio showed a declining trend.What’s more,the elderly population and the elderly population showed a rising trend.Secondly,both the proportion of children and the proportion of elderly population have a significant negative impact on the consumption level of residents.Without policy adjustment,the population age structure of Zhejiang Province will significantly reduce its consumption level in the future.Thirdly,with the rapid decline of the proportion of working population,the proportion of housing expenditure and clothing expenditure will decline to a greater extent.As the population ages further,the need for medical treatment,sanitation and health care will increase.Based on the above research results,this paper gives the following three suggestions: First,optimize the population related policies and improve the population age structure;Second,give full play to the guiding role of the government and change the consumption concept of residents;Third,optimize the industrial structure of consumption and unleash the potential of individual consumption.