| In order to explore the reasons for China’s rapid economic growth after the reform and opening up,many scholars have carried out quantitative analysis and reached a relatively consistent conclusion,that is,the contribution rate of capital investment to economic growth has always remained high,while the contribution rate of labor supply has experienced a gradual decline process(Dong Minjie and Liang Yongmei,2013;Xiao Hongwei and Niu Li,2021),However,on the whole,the economic growth at this stage is still extensive factor input driven,the contribution rate of TFP is limited,the efficiency of resource allocation is low,and the sustainability of growth is not strong.With the gradual decline of demographic dividend,China’s factor endowment structure began to change.The era of "unlimited supply" of low-cost labor force is gone,and the population dependency ratio is also rising year by year;The perennial extensive investment makes the investment efficiency decline year by year,and the investment driven growth model is becoming more and more unsustainable.In addition to the limited scale of factor input,the condition of factor allocation is not ideal.There is "inefficient evolution of industrial structure" in labor allocation,the trend of "disenchantment from real to virtual" investment in capital allocation is obvious,and the disadvantages of factor driven growth mode are becoming more and more obvious.Since 2014,China has entered the new normal stage of shifting from high-speed growth to medium and high-speed growth.It is imperative to "change mode" and "adjust structure".During the 14 th Five Year Plan period,the theme of economic and social development should be to promote high-quality development,and promoting dynamic change is the key and foundation of economic development in the stage of high-quality development.From the trade comparative advantage brought by the transfer of rural surplus labor force in the early stage of demographic dividend,to the increase of savings rate and investment pull caused by the decline of dependency ratio,and then to the unsustainable factor driven growth mode after the dividend subsides,demographic dividend has always been the key to driving force of China’s economic growth.Therefore,to study the dynamic mechanism transformation of China’s economic growth,the demographic dividend is an unavoidable factor.Therefore,from the perspective of demographic dividend,this paper aims to explore the dynamic mechanism of China’s economic growth at different stages through theoretical modeling and quantitative decomposition.The work of this paper mainly includes the following aspects:First,Clarify the mechanism and path of demographic dividend on economic growth,and try to characterize it into the theoretical model.There is a consensus that demographic dividend can promote economic growth,but there are different opinions on how it can promote economic growth,and even on its definition.Some scholars believe that the decline of population dependency ratio is a demographic dividend,because it can improve the social labor participation rate and savings rate;Some scholars also regard the transfer of rural labor force as the performance of demographic dividend,because it can optimize the allocation of urban and rural labor force.The reason for this situation is that scholars’ understanding of the role path of demographic dividend in economic growth is not clear enough.In fact,demographic dividend can act on economic growth in many ways,such as labor supply,capital investment and total factor productivity improvement.This paper hopes to further clarify its action path on economic growth on the basis of clearly defining the measurement indicators of demographic dividend,and try to characterize it into the theoretical model for derivation and verification.Second,quantitatively analyze the effect of demographic dividend on economic growth,and try to decompose the contribution rate of each path.After the demographic dividend is parameterized and integrated into the theoretical model,the theoretical model is further quantified according to the action paths described by the model,the time series data including output and factor input are constructed,and the contribution of demographic dividend to economic growth through each path is quantitatively decomposed by means of economic growth accounting and Econometric analysis.Finally,the detailed contribution rate decomposition data is obtained,which makes the impact of demographic dividend on economic growth more intuitive and clear,and then can answer the question of the transformation of the dynamic mechanism of China’s economic growth from the perspective of demographic dividend.Third,review the path of China’s economic growth,summarize the driving mechanism of China’s economic growth,and find its existing problems.Through economic growth accounting,the contribution rate of various factors such as capital,labor and total factor productivity to economic growth is decomposed.With horizontal comparison as the main analysis means,judge the main driving mechanism of China’s economic growth,find out whether it is capital driven or labor driven,factor driven or efficiency driven,how much the driving effect of each factor is,and whether it is unreasonable in terms of quantity,quality and structure.Fourth,predict the path of China’s economic growth in the future,explore the prospects of China’s economic growth,and judge whether the 2035 long-term plan can be realized on schedule.Based on the predicted age distribution and dependency ratio of the population,combined with the expected target values set in the 2035 long-term plan for fertility level,labor remuneration share and industrial structure,predict the path of capital,labor and total factor productivity,then conduct growth accounting,analyze the potential of China’s economic growth in the future,and explore the prospect of China’s economic growth.After research,this paper draws the following main conclusions:First,through the derivation of the model,it is demonstrated that the quantitative demographic dividend can bring the excess output growth rate through the transfer of urban and rural labor force,and this part of the excess output growth rate will show an inverted U-shaped law of first rising and then falling with the progress of labor transfer.It also demonstrates that the quantitative demographic dividend can increase the labor participation rate and labor supply through the decline of population dependency ratio,and increase the savings rate to accelerate capital formation.Second,through theoretical analysis,this paper demonstrates the action mechanism of human capital among the three industries,and establishes output models respectively.Then,the output models of the three departments are summed up,and the optimal allocation proportion of human capital among the industries with the largest total output is deduced through optimization analysis.Third,from 1978 to 2020,the total contribution rate of capital and labor factors to economic growth reached 89.37%,of which the contribution rate of capital was the most(72.43%),and the contribution rate of total factor productivity to economic growth was relatively limited,only 10.63%.It can be seen that the economic growth model in this period was factor driven.After entering the forecast period 2020-2035,the contribution rate of factors began to decline,falling to 56.98%,of which the decline of labor was the largest,from16.93% to 1.97%.It can be seen that the decline of demographic dividend had a significant negative impact on labor supply.However,the contribution of total factor productivity has increased significantly,from 10.63% to 43.02%,reflecting that the economic growth model has begun to change from factor driven to efficiency driven.Fourth,from 1978 to 2020,the total contribution rate of demographic dividend to economic growth was 19.09%,which was considerable.Among them,the contribution of quantitative demographic dividend(11.62%)was greater than that of quality demographic dividend(7.47%),and their main impact was realized through factor path,with little impact on total factor productivity.From 2020 to 2035,the contribution rate of demographic dividend to economic growth began to turn negative(-5.06%),and the role of quantitative demographic dividend completely disappeared,and even had a negative effect(-6.65%).Qualitative demographic dividend can improve the quality of labor supply by improving the stock of human capital,show a positive contribution to economic growth(6.55%),and offset the negative impact of the decline in the number of labor(-4.58%).In addition,the improvement of human capital stock can also have a positive impact on technological innovation(2.03%).When added with the contribution rate of labor quality improvement,the total contribution rate of human capital stock improvement can reach 8.58%(6.55% + 2.03%).It can be seen that in the future,when the quantitative demographic dividend subsides,it is very important to stimulate the qualitative demographic dividend by improving the human capital stock to maintain the momentum of sustained and stable economic growthFifth,during 2020-2035,the economy will maintain an average annual growth rate of4.68%.By 2035,the total output value of GDP will reach 25684.855 billion yuan(constant price in 1952),which is 1.99 times that in 2020,indicating that under the preset circumstances of this paper,China’s economic growth is fully capable of realizing the goal of 2035 long-term plan(double that in 2020).If we look at the population,by 2035,the total population will be1.4167 billion,which will increase slightly but not decrease.However,the population dependency ratio increased to 54.6%,mainly due to the significant increase in the elderly dependency ratio.It can be seen that the trend of population aging in the future needs to be vigilant.In addition,the sex ratio decreased from 1.04 to 1.02,a slight improvement.The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in the following aspects:First,the innovation of theoretical model.The multiple influence paths of demographic dividend are unified into the framework of economic growth model,and the action mechanism of demographic dividend on economic growth is further clarified.For the quantitative demographic dividend,this paper constructs an urban-rural two sector model including population dependency ratio and urban-rural labor transfer indicators,and describes its impact path on capital formation,labor supply and labor allocation efficiency.For the quality demographic dividend,this paper constructs an inter industry three sector model including human capital indicators,describes its role in promoting the improvement of labor efficiency and technological progress,and solves its optimal allocation proportion among the three industries.Second,the innovation of accounting methods.General economic growth accounting is usually carried out according to several major factor types,such as capital,labor and total factor productivity.In order to quantify and decompose the contribution and difference of the two types of demographic dividends to economic growth,this paper sums up the contribution rate of each path according to the action path deduced in the theoretical modeling part.Finally,the contribution rates of quantitative demographic dividend and quality demographic dividend to economic growth are obtained,which is conducive to the comparative analysis of the contribution differences of the two types of demographic dividend in different growth stages,so as to analyze the transformation of the dynamic mechanism of China’s economic growth from the systematic perspective of demographic dividend.Third,the innovation of prediction ideas.Most literatures only predict the time trend of a single variable,ignoring the correlation between variables.By establishing the relationship between labor,capital,total factor productivity and population age distribution and dependency ratio,and based on the results of population simulation prediction,this paper successively predicts the labor path,total factor productivity path,capital path,output path and so on.In addition,this paper also combines the expected target values set by the 2035long-term plan for fertility level,labor remuneration share and industrial structure,so as to help analyze and judge whether the future economic growth can achieve the goal of the 2035long-term plan as scheduled.Fourth,the innovation of calculation methods.When calculating some indicators,this paper puts forward some innovative derivation and calculation methods according to the meaning of indicators and the characteristics of data.For example,when predicting the human capital stock of the employed population,the distribution of education level of age groups in year t and the data of enrollment rate are used to predict the distribution in year t + 5.For example,the employment rate of each age group is multiplied by the employment rate of the total population of each age group in the current year,and then the employment rate of each age group is obtained by multiplying the employment rate by the employment rate of the total population of each age group.In addition,this paper puts forward some innovative calculation methods and formulas in the prediction of inter industry human capital mismatch coefficient and savings rate. |
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