The Empirical Study On How Demographic Dividend Promote Economic Growth In The Context Of New Urbanization

Demographic change and economic growth are closely linked, the paper aims to use thefirst demographic dividend and the second demographic dividend to analyze the mechanismbetween the demographic structure and economic growth. In this paper, we use the PDEmodel to analyze the demographic trends of the future, pointing out the reasonableness andnecessity of two-child policy; use multiple regression to demonstrate a greater impact oneconomic growth demographic dividend; use least squares estimates, fixed effects estimates,the random effects estimates, generalized least squares method to estimate the empiricalrelationship between savings rate and population structure. First of all, this paper analyzesthe changing trend of population structure in our country, it finds that the populationstructure is aging in our country. Secondly, according to the empirical conclusion: extendedlife expectancy can increase national savings rate. If we don’t take time effect intoconsideration, the increase of children’s dependency ratio will reduce national savings rate; ifwe take time effect into consideration, the result is opposite. The increase of the elderlydependency ratio will improve national savings rate whether we consider time effect or not.It creates a good condition for the secondary demographic dividend. This article alsoanalyzes the urbanization process of our country, it finds out the hindering factors, itconcludes that the urbanization will contribute to the realization of the second demographicdividend and discusses how to promote the new urbanization.In the end, this articlesummarizes the view and give the suggestions which for further develop the firstdemographic dividend combining with the reality at present and promote the secondarydemographic dividend.