Study On The Poverty Alleviation Effects Of China’s Aid To Sub-Saharan Africa

Over the past two decades,Sub-Saharan Africa(SSA)has experienced economic growth,slowdowns,and differentiation,yet overall poverty levels have not significantly improved.The number of people living in extreme poverty has increased,lagging significantly behind global poverty reduction efforts.International development assistance and financing,as vital sources of funds for poverty alleviation,hold significant importance for achieving the United Nations 2030 Sustainable Development Goals in the post-pandemic era.Among these,China’s achievements in poverty reduction as an emerging market nation have positively demonstrated effects on other developing countries,providing an alternative model for development assistance financing within the framework of South-South cooperation.However,the typical correspondences highlight a notable lack of rigorous and systematic evaluation in academia regarding the poverty reduction effects of China’s assistance system led by the government and guided by the principle of "aid on demand." Especially lacking is a thorough exploration of the allocation logic behind aid projects under this guiding principle,thereby failing to provide theoretical and empirical support for optimizing China’s assistance mechanisms and poverty reduction efficiency.Against this backdrop,this paper matches Chinese aid project data with population and health survey data,integrating rich geographic information to construct a framework for evaluating the effectiveness and efficiency of poverty reduction assistance.Primarily focusing on multidimensional absolute poverty from a capabilities perspective and multidimensional relative poverty from an opportunity perspective,the paper examines the impact and channels of Chinese aid projects on the welfare levels of local residents in SSA at a micro level.After clarifying the poverty reduction effects and scope of Chinese assistance,the paper delves into how recipient governments allocate development financing based on regional endowments in the process of China’s expanding assistance to SSA under the principle of "aid on demand." This process aims to transcend singular dimensions of effectiveness assessment,scrutinizing the characteristics of recipient government behavior to better understand the political-economic logic behind the poverty reduction effects of Chinese assistance.Lastly,the paper suggests improvement pathways for the aid system mechanism and poverty reduction efficiency through the adjustment of China’s foreign aid structure and international aid coordination.The study unfolds in a sequence of "indicator measurement-factual analysis-theoretical analysis-empirical testing." Firstly,in terms of indicator measurement,the paper measures and analyzes the poverty performance in health,education,and quality of life dimensions at both national and sub-national levels in SSA,constructing multidimensional relative poverty indicators based on the basic framework of multidimensional poverty index.By utilizing parameter methods and machine learning,the paper measures the inequality of poverty reduction opportunities among residents in SSA and evaluates the inclusive effects of poverty reduction processes and the contributions of various environmental factors to inequality through Shapley decomposition.Factual analysis indicates that SSA concentrates the most severe multidimensional poverty globally,particularly in central and inland areas,with significant disparities in poverty levels among different countries.Within the same country,coastal regions generally exhibit lower poverty levels than inland areas.Dimensional importance analysis reveals that the contribution of poverty in the quality of life dimension to multidimensional poverty is as high as 48.20%.Urban-rural disparities are significant across countries,with some countries,such as Madagascar,showing more pronounced urban-rural differentiation due to a single-industry structure and excessive reliance on tourism services.Overall,income inequality in SSA remains around 35%,with the contribution of missing poverty reduction opportunities to income inequality exceeding 50%,showing no significant improvement trend over the long term.Shapley decomposition results indicate that whether residents live in cities is the most critical factor contributing to unequal poverty reduction opportunities,with an average contribution rate of 71.86%,followed by gender,local natural resources,and coastal proximity.At the theoretical analysis level,the paper explores the impact of Chinese assistance on local multidimensional absolute poverty based on capability theory and analyzes how assistance alleviates multidimensional relative poverty based on opportunity theory.Through the pathways of capacity building,the paper reveals how assistance indirectly affects non-agricultural employment,industrial development,and economic performance,thereby improving residents’ income by enhancing non-farm employment,job stability,enterprise agglomeration,production capacity,and promoting economic vitality and urbanization rates.Simultaneously,based on the social assistance approach,the direct effect of public resource accessibility improves the degree of deprivation among residents,directly addressing social exclusion.In the theoretical model of mitigating multidimensional relative poverty,from the perspectives of income convergence and social inclusion,the paper argues how assistance,as a source of public expenditure for recipient governments,bridges individual income gaps caused by differences in survival backgrounds and helps disadvantaged residents escape poverty traps and achieve income growth.Finally,from the perspective of recipient government,the paper demonstrates that under the principle of "aid on demand," facing continuously relaxed assistance budget constraints,contrasting allocation decisions for assistance resources will be made concerning maximizing national welfare and economic development.The former aims to narrow the gap in public resource allocation between regions with naturally better living conditions and those with adverse conditions,while the latter,influenced by the Matthew effect,leads to more public resources being attracted to developed areas,with poverty reduction effects stemming from both vertical trickle-down effects of economic growth and horizontal diffusion effects.For the Chinese government,theoretical analysis suggests that when maximizing poverty reduction in recipient countries is the goal,consideration should be given to the marginal effects and curvature changes of poverty reduction for both "small but beautiful" livelihood projects and "grandiose" flagship projects,achieving balanced and coordinated fund allocation and avoiding blind expansion of investment.Regarding empirical research,the paper first establishes a micro-analysis framework through a spatial-temporal estimation strategy,confirming the positive significance of Chinese assistance in reducing multidimensional absolute poverty and promoting inclusive poverty reduction among local residents in SSA.However,mechanism analysis reveals that while assistance accelerates the transition of residents from agricultural to non-agricultural production activities,the number of jobs in the service sector far exceeds that in the industrial sector,revealing a phenomenon of inadequate coordination between industrialization,economic growth,and urbanization progress in SSA,which may exacerbate new forms of poverty such as urban slums.In terms of inclusive poverty reduction,Chinese assistance projects overall help alleviate inequality of opportunities in SSA,promote inclusive poverty reduction among urban and rural residents by mitigating isolation effects resulting from external environmental differences,provide more poverty reduction resources and opportunities for vulnerable groups such as women and the elderly,help transform employment structures,and thus assist them in escaping poverty traps.However,particular attention is drawn to the fundamental role of recipient government institutions’ effective operation and the endogenous dynamics of national development in achieving effective poverty reduction through Chinese assistance,with its functional role more akin to a "catalyst" than a "trigger." Finally,the efficiency of poverty reduction under the aid path based on the principle of "aid on demand" presents considerable optimization space.With the expansion of Chinese assistance,recipient governments tend to allocate more funds to developed areas.This implies that under the development model prioritizing economic growth and social stability in recipient countries,poverty reduction generally relies on trickle-down effects.Further analysis indicates that investment in "grandiose" projects,represented by large-scale infrastructure,has entered a range of diminishing marginal utility in poverty reduction,while "small but beautiful" livelihood projects are equally crucial in promoting poverty reduction and facilitating connectivity.Coordinated allocation and deployment of funds for different types of projects and strengthening coordination with multilateral development banks can improve fund utilization efficiency and realize the inherent value of assistance.In conclusion,this study believes that China’s international development cooperation model under the framework of South-South cooperation possesses advantages such as financing convenience and project implementation flexibility,capable of exerting poverty alleviation and inclusive effects through infrastructure construction.However,China’s assistance to SSA countries still cannot completely break free from the shackles faced by traditional development assistance in terms of effectiveness alone,and it cannot fully avoid typical problems such as the aid-governance paradox and inefficiency.In view of this,the paper proposes the following policy inspirations: firstly,deepen the "three-in-one" international development cooperation model,further improve mutually beneficial assistance systems;secondly,focus on the endogenous dynamics of recipient countries to enhance the sustainability of project operations;thirdly,improve project review and evaluation systems,conduct targeted project deployment;fourthly,adjust the structure of foreign aid projects,coordinate the promotion of landmark and livelihood projects;and finally,strengthen the collaborative role of international aid agencies and establish a mild competitive relationship in aid.The overall framework of these policy suggestions can promote greater flexibility,wider applicability,and more robust sustainability of China’s current international development cooperation model.