Study On The Water Security Assessment Model And The Corresponding Countermeasures

Shandong Province has 676. 5mm multi- annual rainfall, 275. 4 m~3 multi-annual surface runoff, 168.3×10~8m~3 multi-annual groundwater. Deducts repeated calculation, the Shandong water resources total quantity is 308 ×10~8 m~3, water resources per capita is 344m~3, water resources unit area is 307m~3. Obviously, Shandong Province water resources per capita, water resources unit area is in a quite low level. At the same time, because of non-uniformity year by year, rapid development of society and economy, unreasonable and excessively exploitation, water resources' safeguard function reduces year by year to society and the economy, the coordinated development between water resources and the social economy is hard to realize. The water security condition receives the serious threat. Therefore, has a correct understanding and the science appraisal to the Shandong Province water security condition, and according to the result establish corresponding countermeasure is important. It has the vital significance to realize the water resources science development and the use, the safeguard water resources and the social economy coordinated development.The thesis systematic summarized predecessor's research results, carried on a comprehensive summary and narration to water security implication and water security assessment method. In this foundation, proposed absolute water security appraisal concept and the assessment method, has established the water security fuzzy synthetic evaluation model, proposed the weight quota method. Unifies the overseas research results, the northern area characteristic and fact of our country, take the present society and the economy level of development as the foundation, had determined certainly absolute water security value scope. Take Shandong Province as the example, has established the water security appraisal system, this system includes drinking water security, watercontrol security, environmental security, water manage security and water supply and use security 22 indexes in 5 aspects. Uses the analytic hierarchy process to determine its weight, the multi-level multi-objectives separately optimal and the fuzzy quality synthetic evaluation two kind of models, has carried on the appraisal to this system. Consequently obtains the Shandong Province water security condition be unoptimistic result which is actually tallies with Shandong Province. According to appraise result, proposed a series of corresponding countermeasures, put forward the effective proposal regarding to Shandong Province in the policy making.