Study On Evaluation Method Of Travel Time Reliability In Public Transportation System

With the development of the economic activity increasingly and improvement in the quality of life, the value of travel time in transport system has been more important in recent years. The value of travel time has become important issue in transport system and correlation item evaluations, and the reliability of travel time has become related projects. The analysis base on a passenger travel course by one line .and change journey which contains many different public transportation routes of running time reliability. Reliability math models for random distribution of Passenger and Vehicles are set up. And Matlab simulations are set up. By test simulation model and fact investigate datum of two lines to correct the models. Put forward an evaluation method and simulation method for reliability of vehicles operation time. At the same time, random distribution model for every phases has been set up, so as to analysis reliabilities the system and every phases. According to traffic flow theory and impacts of many different operational states of public services on passenger arrival lateness, and random distribution and simulation technique have been linked, make up of a series of integrated reliability analysis method and simulation method. Simulation models can clear frank reflect that impacts of operational states of public services on passenger arrival lateness. These methods are propitious to research the reliability issues for operation time of transport system from the issue of passenger arrival lateness.