Spring Festival Transportation Passenger Flow Analysis And Countermeasure Research Of Nanchang Passenger Depot

In this paper, an analysis and countermeasure research spring festival transportation passenger flow in Nanchang passenger depot is presented.To begin with, the background and significance in this research, with the summarization to the research results at home and abroad, are put forword in this paper. Then, taking Nanchang passenger depot as research object, the cause of passenger flow and the trait, of spring festival transportation in Nanchang area, are analyzed from the perspective of regional situation, custom and culture, and development of socio-economy. In addition, combining with spring festival transportation passenger flow survey of Nanchang passenger depot in 2005, the characteristic and cycle of spring festival transportation passenger flow of Nanchang passenger depot in recent years are analyzed and the rule of passenger flow's change is researched. Furthermore, by taking the 40 days' passenger sending volume, during spring festival transportation of Nanchang passenger depot from 2002 to 2005, as research object, the combined regression and stochastic time series models of spring festival transportation passenger flow of Nanchang passenger depot are founded. Besides, the forecast to passenger flow is scientifically analyzed and the passenger flow of Nanchang passenger depot in 2006 is predicted, which provide a theoretical basis to choose and estimate prediction method in future. Finally, thanks to the prediction result of current delivery volume and the models which predict spring festival transportation passenger flow of Nanchang passenger depot, the countermeasure and suggestion for organizing spring festival transportation of Nanchang passenger depot are presented, which can not only ensure what priority flow needs and arrange transportation capacity reasonably, but also improve.organizing works and optimize the temporary trains circulation plan.