The Study On Safety Evaluation Of Loaded Dry Bulk Carrier In Rough Sea

In the recent years, total loss shipwrecks of dry bulk carriers have happened frequently, whose loss is the most serious of all the marine disasters. As for each single ship, the losses are quite considerable. Of all these disasters, most are caused by bad weather and foundering. There are two features of the shipwrecks: the carriers are loaded with highly-dense goods; the structures of the carrier are badly damaged, leading to water ingress and sinking. The carrier sank at such a high rate that the crew had little time to escape, and resulted in great loss on people's lives and properties. Besides searching for causes from the design, enhancing the assessment of the safety of dry bulk carriers and finding out the potential safety danger in time is the most important.The traffic safety system is composed of human, vessel and environment, this thesis sums up an "one-vote-negation" index for safe voyage and a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation index based on the research of concerning marine accident statistics, seaworthiness requirement and PSC programs. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation index involves the tonnage, age, structure, equipment and stability of the carrier, with the emphasis on their effects on the safety of the voyage in heavy weather. As for human factors, the "one-vote-negation" index is the only element to be considered. According to the principles of system engineering, using analytic hierarchy process (AHP), determine the weight value of effects of all the indices. Determine the membership degree with membership function method of fuzzy mathematics, and establish mathematic model of multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, making qualitative and quantitative comprehensive evaluation on safety of voyage in heavy weather and making verification based on actual vessel data.