The Risk Research On Shaanxi Road Construction Project Adopted The Model Of Project Financing TOT-BOT

Based on the study of the BOT and TOT respectively, The thesis presents a fire-new project-financing model-TOT-BOT, which is organically combined BOT with TOT , and which is creationarily used in the road construction project of Shaanxi province . The paper introduces the fundamental of TOT-BOT first, and then does the feasibility of the model to a nalyze wnether it could be used in Shaanxi road project; furthermore, the primary study on the risk management of the model is done. Finally, the paper draws the following conclusions: 1) the combined model has the advantages of both TOT and BOT, it can not only activate the fixed assets but also promote the finance of intent projects; 2 ) faced with the problems of capital shortage and simplified finance model, Shaanxi province has a increasing invest demand in the road construction area. It is confirmed that the application of the model TOT-BOT is feasible to the road construction project of Shaanxi by analysis; 3) in the market risk evaluation of the road project, to introduce Bayesian Theory is both scientific and feasible, which is applied to the risk evaluation of the traffic prediction.The innovations of the paper have two aspects in the present of the model design and the risk evaluation: firstly, based on the fundamentals of TOT and BOT, it presents a TOT-BOT project-financing model, and does the primary feasibility study on the road construction project of Shaanxi province. Secondly, Bayesian Theory is applied to the risk evaluation of the traffic prediction. Then, the future inference can be gained from the experience data and the specimen data by the theory; meanwhile, the predicted result can be modified constantly with the increase of the specimen. Above two views are not only practical to develop road construction of Shaanxi province, but also helpful to open a new idea of the project financing research.