Study Of Land Use Change And Driving Forces--A Case Study Of Jiang'an County

Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) is a leading and popular research in the global environmental variational research. LUCC's driving force research is accordingly the core of this research.Adopting the actual county-grade database of land use firstly founded in China, combining with the comprehensive influential factors of land use change, using the correlative statistic software and the mathematic analytical methods(Principal Component Analysis, Gray Relating Analysis, Multivariate Time Series Markov Chain Analysis, Multivariate Regression Analysis, GM(1,1) Gray Model, Gray Series GM(1,N) Model methods etc), this paper analyses the dynamic change of land use and driving force in Jiang'an County qualitatively and quantitatively. The results indicate:1 The land resource per capita and the area of single-land-use type in Jiang'an County are not prior to other places in Yibing City or Sichuan Province. However, the terrain is dominant in choosing the way of land use. hi this region the total tendencies of land use change are as follows: 1) The areas of cultivated land, woodland, traffic land and water area are increasingly decreasing; 2) The areas of wasted land are gradually increasing; 3) The diversity index of landscape takes on ' A' trend.2 The correlativity is quite obvious between the synthetical index of land use and density ofrural population, positive between the comprehensive index of land use and total densities of population and between areas of individual classification of land and income per capita.3 The main reason for the decreased area of cultivated land, woodland and grand plot is that they are used as constructional land in the process of industrialization and urbanization; Growth of population and adjustment of rural industrial instruction become the major factors in the increase of the area of residential land and urban land; The main factors in the growth of area of wasted land are transformation of rural population and degeneration of soil.4 The factors of driving force of land use in Jiang'an County primarily lie in industrialization, urbanization, population, and economic condition etc. Comparatively, population and economic condition are the most important ones.5 The gray model of all land use types is:Cultivated land: X1(i+l)=-1369.539943Garden plot: X1 (i+l)= -0.013937Woodland: X1 (i+l)=-1604.065672Residential and industrial land: X1(i+l)=40.697008Traffic land: X1 (i+l)=6.391966Waters area: X1 (i+l)=-0.364244eUnused land: X'(i+l)=62.736048*e6 The gray model indicates: the area of cultivated land, woodland, traffic land and water area in Jiang'an County is decreasing, and the area of residential land, urban land and wasted land is increasing, but the decrease of the area of grand plot and traffic land in the future will not be obvious.