Land use / cover change is the result of complex interaction between natural factor and various human work, and soc_economical factor are the important driving force in short term. On county scale, the study areas are shouguang county and quzhou county in the Huanghuaihai plain of China.Firstly, based on GIS and RS, applying TM images of 1980 and 2000, and related spatial data by using spatial analysis system of Arc GIS, in order to discuss the progress of land use / cover change in study areas both on space and time, moreover, analyze land use spatial dynamic change and transformSecondly, applying the soc_economical statistic data during 1980-2000, to analyze the main driving forces and driving mechanism of land use change, an index system representing land use change and main driving forces is submitted. The correlation between factors and land use change is discussed and multivariable regression model is set up. By means of standardized regression coefficient of the model, impact of main driving forces on arable land change is analyzed quantitatively. The results show that: The main driving forces of arable land change of shouguang County are the per capita income, the ratio of the pasture output value, the ratio of the cropping output values and the ratio of agricultural labor force proportion; The main driving forces of arable land change of quzhou County are the variation of grain yield per unit area, the ratio of the pasture output value, the ratio of the cropping output values, the ratio of grain field areas and the population density. Therefore, it contributes to reveal the mechanism of land use / cover change, and also contributes to accumulate the methods and experiences in study of land use / cover in the future. |