Parameters Research On Stochastic Evolutionary Model For The Diffusion System Of Substitute Technological Innovation

Substitute technological innovation diffusion is one of the most researched diffusion. So far, people have acquired lots of achievements. The ancient research about the models of substitute technological innovation diffusion didn't calculate the stochastic factors. So, they took on definite limitation. This paper aims at detailed study of the parameters of the stochastic evolutionary model of the substitute technological innovation diffusion.Firstly, this paper discusses the parameters of disquisitive status about innovation diffusion models and extends their range from the simple estimation to the economic meanings, the influence factors and the characters. Secondly, the thesis applies the Back-Propagation neural network (BPNN) to estimate the environment parameter and sets up the corresponding NN model. Thirdly, the paper builds the qualitative model by way of economic psychology and exercises the theory of utility to erect the measure model focusing on the corporation individual adoption tendency. Finally, the relative superiority parameter of innovation is researched by making use of the Interpretative Structural Modeling and combining with the CTST innovation diffusion of Hebei University of Technology.