Application Of System Dynamics To The Development In Shan-bei Leading Industries

For long time .raising the living standards of the peasants in Shan-bei district which most of the people are peasants , improving their life state and increasing the fiscal revenues of those counties are matters of interest to both the state and peasant .While how to utilize fully and reasonable the four leading industries (the tobacco industry, fruit industry, forestry and animal industry) which have natural advantages is one of the most effective way to solve the problem. The thesis is based on the Shanxi's soft-scientific item "the decision-making research of the development of the leading industries in Shan-bei region"At present, because there are many problems, such as random and blindness, during the peasant of Shan-bei develop the leading industries, the thesis will offer a kind of methods to settle those problems by utilizing the system dynamics to analysis the system of leading industry and predict the development scale and variation tendency of each sub-project in the future every years finally.The type of the thesis is application fundament . The thesis is divided into five parts: above all, the following problems are brought forward in the preface: the background of the thesis, the meaning of research , research method and the present situation of research in domestic and international. Among chapter one the actual sources of the leading industry are analyzed to provide the circumstantial basic materials for the next systems analysis. Afterwards the technological route to the thesis ?system dynamics is introduced in chapter two. Causality picture and SD flow chart and model equation of the leading industry of Shan-bei has beendesigned in Chapter three of thesis .The scale and trend of the luochuan apple in the next l0years are forecasted in chapter four by stimulating the luochuan apple development.The actual meaning of this thesis lies in putting forward the system dynamics model of the leading industry in Shan-bei, and predicting the development scales of sub-project and trends of relevant variable of it through computer simulation .The result not only can offer theory support and scientific basis for Shan-bei government when they make policy and plan goal for the leading industry but also can offer the rational and scientific guide in such aspects as planting and management of the concrete industry for peasant. The SD model of the leading industry in Shan-bei too can be applied to the development of the leading industry or individual industry of other provinces at the same time.The theory meaning of this thesis lies in putting forward a kind of comparative feasible theory solution for the practical problem of the complicated social economy system through the simulation of SD model. Through researching the leading industry with system dynamics in addition, it is a kind of new try in this field; it is also a kind of expansion for the practical application of system dynamics.