Research On Risk Evaluation For Venture Capital

With the arrival of intellectual economy, high-tech field has been the corripetitive focus of all countries in the world and high-tech industry has been an important sign of country's comprehensive strength. However, the industrialization of high-tech accomplishment needs a lot of money, faces great risk and has low possibility of success. These limit the development of high-tech industry to a great extent. The venture capital investors can control the risk and gain maximum income when they gain the information ( such as kinds, influence, size) of risk factors.This paper mainly studies the risk evaluation of venture capital and aims at providing the basis for the decision of venture capital. It has two main parts: risk appraisal before venture capital is invested and risk appraisal and risk management after venture capital is invested. The first part as the core of this paper appraises venture business and venture capital organization. The present documents usually appraise venture business totally, don't embody the stage characteristic of risk of venture capital project, and lack the practical meaning. Because of the stage characteristic of project risk, this paper appraises the project alone. This helps to seize the project risk and provide reliable basis for decision of venture capital. The second part is secondary and it includes risk evolution and risk dynamic survey after venture capital is invested. Monitoring the dynamic risk trends and grasping timely risk state helps to withstand and disperse the risk.The detailed steps about risk appraisal: discernment and analysis of risk factors, setting-up of risk evaluation index system and measure of risk. On the basis of related theory (market science, management science, strategy science etc,), the accomplishment of present documents and practical situation in our country, this paper discerns and analyses the risk of appraised targets. When selecting theevaluation method, the scientific principle and the practical one are both considered. Thanks to complication of risk factors influencing the appraised targets and distinct connotation of basically qualitative appraisal indexes, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is applied to measure the risk of venture capital. Because of the single main risk and some operation data of venture capital project during the growth period, this paper selects the simulated method of Monter carlo technology for NPV (Net Present Value) for measuring this risk.